home
***
CD-ROM
|
disk
|
FTP
|
other
***
search
/
ftp.sec.noaa.gov
/
2014.05.ftp.sec.noaa.gov.tar
/
ftp.sec.noaa.gov
/
pub
/
warehouse
/
1988_RSGA.tar.gz
/
1988_RSGA.tar
/
1988_RSGA
/
19880711RSGA.txt
< prev
next >
Wrap
Text File
|
2009-06-10
|
2KB
|
45 lines
FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 193
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 11 JUL 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUES LOW TO MODERATE. NEWLY
NUMBERED REGION 5074 (S16E71) ROTATED INTO VIEW EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND PROMPTLY PRODUCED AN M2/1B FLARE AT 0041Z. THIS
REGION IS THE EXPECTED RETURN OF OLD REGION 5047 WHICH SPAWNED
FOUR X-CLASS EVENTS IN ITS LIFETIME. REGION 5047 CONSISTS OF BUT
TWO WIDELY SEPARATED SUNSPOTS WITH PENUMBRA, ORIENTED MOSTLY
NORTH-SOUTH. LIMB PROXIMITY PROHIBITS ADEQUATE MAGNETIC
ANALYSIS AT THIS WRITING. THE OTHER DISK REGIONS WERE
PREDOMINANTLY STABLE. REGIONS 5069 (N23W25) AND 5071 (N25E19)
GENERATED OCCASIONAL SUBFLARES. THE BACKGROUND X-RAY FLUX
REMAINED NEAR C-LEVEL AGAIN TODAY.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
FROM REGIONS 5069, 5071 OR 5074.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY ACTIVE AT MID-LATITUDES.
HIGH LATITUDES OBSERVED PREDOMINANTLY ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS WITH A BRIEF EPISODE OF MAJOR STORM LEVELS
OCCURRING NEAR MIDDAY. DISAPPEARING FILAMENT ACTIVITY OF
06-07 JULY IS THOUGHT TO BE RELATED TO THIS DISTURBANCE.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THIS CURRENT DISTURBANCE IS
LIKELY TO WANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 JUL-14 JUL
CLASS M 50/50/50
CLASS X 01/01/01
PROTON 01/01/01
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 11 JUL 137
PREDICTED 12 JUL-14 JUL 141/144/147
90 DAY MEAN 11 JUL 130
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 JUL 008/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 JUL 020/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 JUL-14 JUL 010/028-010/020-010/015