FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 193
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 11 JUL 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUES LOW TO MODERATE.  NEWLY
NUMBERED REGION 5074 (S16E71) ROTATED INTO VIEW EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND PROMPTLY PRODUCED AN M2/1B FLARE AT 0041Z. THIS
REGION IS THE EXPECTED RETURN OF OLD REGION 5047 WHICH SPAWNED
FOUR X-CLASS EVENTS IN ITS LIFETIME. REGION 5047 CONSISTS OF BUT
TWO WIDELY SEPARATED SUNSPOTS WITH PENUMBRA, ORIENTED MOSTLY
NORTH-SOUTH.  LIMB PROXIMITY PROHIBITS ADEQUATE MAGNETIC
ANALYSIS AT THIS WRITING.  THE OTHER DISK REGIONS WERE
PREDOMINANTLY STABLE. REGIONS 5069 (N23W25) AND 5071 (N25E19)
GENERATED OCCASIONAL SUBFLARES.  THE BACKGROUND X-RAY FLUX
REMAINED NEAR C-LEVEL AGAIN TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE.  M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
FROM REGIONS 5069, 5071 OR 5074.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY ACTIVE AT MID-LATITUDES.
HIGH LATITUDES OBSERVED PREDOMINANTLY ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS WITH A BRIEF EPISODE OF MAJOR STORM LEVELS
OCCURRING NEAR MIDDAY.  DISAPPEARING FILAMENT ACTIVITY OF
06-07 JULY IS THOUGHT TO BE RELATED TO THIS DISTURBANCE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.  THIS CURRENT DISTURBANCE IS
LIKELY TO WANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 JUL-14 JUL
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 JUL  137
PREDICTED   12 JUL-14 JUL  141/144/147
90 DAY MEAN        11 JUL  130
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 10 JUL  008/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 JUL  020/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 JUL-14 JUL  010/028-010/020-010/015