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19880712RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 194
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 12 JUL 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NEWLY ASSIGNED
REGION 5075 (S21E66) ROTATED CLEARLY INTO VIEW TODAY, JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION 5074 (S15E55). YESTERDAY IT SEEMED
REGION 5074 WAS AN EXTENDED NORTH-SOUTH BIPOLE, BUT IN FACT
IT HAS PROVEN TO BE TWO DISTINCT REGIONS. REGION 5075 IS
THE MORE COMPLEX OF THE DUO AND HAS PRODUCED OCCASIONAL C-CLASS
FLARES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE OTHER SPOTTED REGIONS HAVE
BEEN STABLE OR DECAYING AND THE LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. THE BACKGROUND X-RAY FLUX PERSISTS NEAR
C-LEVEL AND M-CLASS ACTIVITY COULD COME FROM REGION 5075.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
LEVELS AT MID-LATITUDES. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS
PREVAILED AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 JUL-15 JUL
CLASS M 50/50/50
CLASS X 01/01/01
PROTON 01/01/01
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 12 JUL 133
PREDICTED 13 JUL-15 JUL 135/137/139
90 DAY MEAN 12 JUL 130
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 JUL 021/036
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 JUL 015/028
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 JUL-15 JUL 010/020-010/015-010/015