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19880705RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 187
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 05 JUL 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 5060 (S19W54)
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DECAY. IT RETAINED ITS BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
CONFIGURATION, BUT PRODUCED ONLY C-CLASS SUBFLARES WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT RADIO ASPECTS. REGION 5062 (N13W49) ALSO CONTINUED
TO SLOWLY DECAY. IT RETAINED ITS BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION AND
ALSO PRODUCED ONLY INSIGNIFICANT SUBFLARES. NEWLY ASSIGNED
REGION 5069 (N23E53) WAS A SMALL BETA-TYPE; WHILE NEW REGION
5070 (S14E74) WAS INITIALLY SEEN AS AN ALPHA-TYPE.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. REGION 5060 PROVIDES A VERY SLIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF BOTH
HIGH AND VERY HIGH ACTIVITY LEVELS.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO QUIET.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 JUL-08 JUL
CLASS M 25/25/25
CLASS X 10/10/10
PROTON 15/15/15
PCAF YELLOW
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 05 JUL 166
PREDICTED 06 JUL-08 JUL 161/156/152
90 DAY MEAN 05 JUL 130
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 JUL 003/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 JUL 003/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 JUL-08 JUL 010/015-012/015-012/018