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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 186
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 04 JUL 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF
THE PERIOD WAS A C5/SF FLARE FROM WITHIN REGION 5062 (N13W37).
THEREAFTER, THE REGION REMAINED RELATIVELY QUIET AS IT BEGAN TO
SLOWLY DECAY. GRADUAL DECAY CONTINUED WITHIN REGION 5060
(S20W41). ISOLATED SUBFLARE ACTIVITY OCCURRED WITHIN THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A VERY WEAK TYPE II RADIO SWEEP BURST
WAS DETECTED AT 04/1336Z. THE SWEEP HAD NO OPTICAL OR X-RAY
CORRELATION. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED TODAY: 5067 (S10W28)
AND 5068 (N25E18). BOTH EMERGED AS UNIPOLAR GROUPS.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 5060 AND 5062 PRESENT A FAIR CHANCE OF
M-LEVEL AND A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF X-LEVEL ACTIVITY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET LEVELS FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE HIGH LATITUDE
FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE MIDDLE LATITUDE
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TOMORROW
BECOMING UNSETTLED TO QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
THE HIGH LATITUDE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 JUL-07 JUL
CLASS M 50/45/40
CLASS X 15/10/05
PROTON 15/10/05
PCAF YELLOW
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 04 JUL 175
PREDICTED 05 JUL-07 JUL 168/161/152
90 DAY MEAN 04 JUL 129
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 JUL 006/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 JUL 003/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 JUL-07 JUL 016/028-012/025-007/018