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19880619RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 171
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 19 JUN 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 5047 (S15E09)
AND REGION 5041 (N15W80) EACH PRODUCED MODEST C-CLASS EVENTS.
BOTH REGIONS DECAYED IN GENERAL, BUT REGION 5047 RETAINS A
SLIGHT DEGREE OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. A LARGE, BUSHY PROMINENCE
GRADUALLY ASCENDED FROM S50W90 AROUND 1600Z. THAT EVENT HAD
NO ASSOCIATED X-RAY ENHANCEMENT. THE OTHER FOUR SPOTTED REGIONS
WERE STABLE. NO NEW REGION WAS ASSIGNED.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AT A LOW LEVEL. REGION 5047 MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENT IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AT
MID-LATITUDES. CONDITIONS FLUCTUATED ABOUT THE MINOR STORM
LEVEL AT HIGH LATITUDE SITES. THE JUNE 15 FLARE/CME ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY THE ORIGIN OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE
INTERVAL. MID-LATITUDES MAY EXPERIENCE QUIET CONDITIONS
JUNE 22.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 JUN-22 JUN
CLASS M 20/20/20
CLASS X 01/01/01
PROTON 01/01/01
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 19 JUN 116
PREDICTED 20 JUN-22 JUN 116/117/118
90 DAY MEAN 19 JUN 124
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 JUN 015/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 JUN 015/035
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 JUN-22 JUN 010/025-010/018-005/020