FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 171
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 19 JUN 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  REGION 5047 (S15E09)
AND REGION 5041 (N15W80) EACH PRODUCED MODEST C-CLASS EVENTS.
BOTH REGIONS DECAYED IN GENERAL, BUT REGION 5047 RETAINS A
SLIGHT DEGREE OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY.  A LARGE, BUSHY PROMINENCE
GRADUALLY ASCENDED FROM S50W90 AROUND 1600Z.  THAT EVENT HAD
NO ASSOCIATED X-RAY ENHANCEMENT.  THE OTHER FOUR SPOTTED REGIONS
WERE STABLE.  NO NEW REGION WAS ASSIGNED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AT A LOW LEVEL.  REGION 5047 MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENT IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AT
MID-LATITUDES.  CONDITIONS FLUCTUATED ABOUT THE MINOR STORM
LEVEL AT HIGH LATITUDE SITES.  THE JUNE 15 FLARE/CME ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY THE ORIGIN OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE
INTERVAL.  MID-LATITUDES MAY EXPERIENCE QUIET CONDITIONS
JUNE 22.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 JUN-22 JUN
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 JUN  116
PREDICTED   20 JUN-22 JUN  116/117/118
90 DAY MEAN        19 JUN  124
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 18 JUN  015/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 JUN  015/035
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 JUN-22 JUN  010/025-010/018-005/020