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19880618RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 170
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 18 JUN 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUES AT A LOW LEVEL. A C5/0F
FLARE FROM REGION 5047 (S17E23) AT 0015Z WAS THE MOST ENERGETIC
EVENT OF THE PERIOD. THAT REGION EXHIBITS A MODERATE DEGREE
OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AND HAS UNDERGONE RESTRUCTURING AND
GROWTH IN WHITE LIGHT. REGION 5041 (N14W66), PRODUCER OF A FEW
SUBFLARES, ALSO IS SLIGHTLY COMPLEX IN STRUCTURE. NEWLY
NUMBERED REGION 5053 (S21E76) ROTATED INTO VIEW AS A SINGLE
MATURE SPOT WITH PENUMBRA AND SOME PLAGE. IT IS PROBABLY THE
RETURN OF OLD REGION 5027 WHICH GENERATED 6 M-CLASS FLARES
IN ITS LIFETIME. SURGING HERALDED ITS ARRIVAL ON THE DISK.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. REGION 5047 MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT IN
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AT MID-
LATITUDES. AT HIGH LATITUDES GENERALLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS
GAVE WAY TO MINOR STORM LEVELS THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS THOUGHT TO BE RELATED TO THE FLARE/CME ACTIVITY
OF JUNE 15.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD PERSIST AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE INTERVAL ARE LIKELY TO BE
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 JUN-21 JUN
CLASS M 25/25/25
CLASS X 01/01/01
PROTON 01/01/01
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 18 JUN 122
PREDICTED 19 JUN-21 JUN 122/124/126
90 DAY MEAN 18 JUN 124
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 JUN 012/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 JUN 016/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 JUN-21 JUN 020/030-010/018-010/017