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04190030three_day_forecast.txt
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:Product: 04190030three_day_forecast.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 19 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 19-Apr 21 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 19-Apr 21 2014
Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr 21
00-03UT 2 3 5 (G1)
03-06UT 2 5 (G1) 4
06-09UT 2 4 3
09-12UT 2 3 3
12-15UT 2 2 2
15-18UT 2 5 (G1) 2
18-21UT 4 4 3
21-00UT 4 4 4
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 20-21 Apr due
to the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from 16 Apr and 18 Apr.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 19-Apr 21 2014
Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr 21
S1 or greater 99% 75% 50%
Rationale: The in-progress S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm is expected
to persist above the S1 threshold through 20 Apr with a chance of
crossing the S1 threshold on 21 Apr.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 18 2014 1303 UTC
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 19-Apr 21 2014
Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr 21
R1-R2 60% 60% 60%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely for 19-21
Apr due to active region complexity.