:Product: 04190030three_day_forecast.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 19 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 19-Apr 21 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 19-Apr 21 2014

            Apr 19     Apr 20     Apr 21
00-03UT        2          3          5 (G1)
03-06UT        2          5 (G1)     4     
06-09UT        2          4          3     
09-12UT        2          3          3     
12-15UT        2          2          2     
15-18UT        2          5 (G1)     2     
18-21UT        4          4          3     
21-00UT        4          4          4     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 20-21 Apr due
to the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from 16 Apr and 18 Apr.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 19-Apr 21 2014

              Apr 19  Apr 20  Apr 21
S1 or greater   99%     75%     50%

Rationale: The in-progress S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm is expected
to persist above the S1 threshold through 20 Apr with a chance of
crossing the S1 threshold on 21 Apr.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 18 2014 1303 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 19-Apr 21 2014

              Apr 19        Apr 20        Apr 21
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely for 19-21
Apr due to active region complexity.