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04181230three_day_forecast.txt
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:Product: 04181230three_day_forecast.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 18 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 18-Apr 20 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 18-Apr 20 2014
Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr 20
00-03UT 2 2 4
03-06UT 2 2 5 (G1)
06-09UT 1 2 4
09-12UT 2 2 3
12-15UT 2 2 2
15-18UT 2 2 2
18-21UT 2 4 3
21-00UT 3 4 4
Rationale: G1 - minor storm levels are likely on day three (20 Apr) with
the arrival of the 17 Apr CME.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 18-Apr 20 2014
Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr 20
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for an S1 - Minor solar radiation
storm during the period due to the complexity of regions moving towards
the West limb.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 18-Apr 20 2014
Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr 20
R1-R2 60% 60% 60%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: Solar activity is likely at R1-Minor levels for the next
three days (18 - 20 Apr) due to enhanced solar region complexity.