home
***
CD-ROM
|
disk
|
FTP
|
other
***
search
/
ftp.sec.noaa.gov
/
2014.05.ftp.sec.noaa.gov.tar
/
ftp.sec.noaa.gov
/
pub
/
forecasts
/
three_day
/
04180030three_day_forecast.txt
< prev
next >
Wrap
Text File
|
2014-04-17
|
2KB
|
55 lines
:Product: 04180030three_day_forecast.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 18 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 18-Apr 20 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 18-Apr 20 2014
Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr 20
00-03UT 3 2 4
03-06UT 2 2 5 (G1)
06-09UT 2 2 4
09-12UT 2 2 3
12-15UT 1 2 2
15-18UT 1 2 2
18-21UT 2 4 3
21-00UT 3 4 4
Rationale: Category G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is expected on day 3
(Apr 20) due to the arrival of a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated
with an M1 flare on 16 April.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 18-Apr 20 2014
Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr 20
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 or greater radiation storm exists
for the forecast period (Apr 18-20) as Regions 2034, 2035, 2036, and
2037 increase in complexity and transit into a better connected
location.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 18-Apr 20 2014
Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr 20
R1-R2 60% 60% 60%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: Solar activity is likely to be at (R1-Minor) levels for the
next three days (Apr 18-20) due to solar region complexity and growth.