NetNews Usenet Archive 1993 #1/NN_1993_1.iso/spool/sci/econ/9592

Internet Message Format | 1993-01-07 | 5.6 KB

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Subject: World's Futures Trading (12/23 - 12/30)
Date: 7 Jan 1993 07:54:41 -0600
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Comments on the following presentation are welcomed!


                        WEEKLY FUTURES MARKET
                    Dec.23 - Dec.30 REVIEW PERIOD


     Futures Contract                          Profit/Loss %*
     03/93 Crude Oil                                    -2.00
     02/93 Gold                                         -0.75
     03/93 Silver                                      -13.96
     04/93 Platinum                                    -16.05
     03/93 Copper                                      +39.94
     03/93 British Pound                               -16.67
     03/93 Canadian Dollar                             -50.93
     03/93 DMark                                       -32.87
     03/93 Swiss Franc                                 -18.84
     03/93 Yen                                         -35.54
     **    Taiwan Dollar                                +2.11
     03/93 U.S. Dollar Index                           +23.75
     03/93 Nikkei Stock Index                          -33.20
     03/93 S&P 500                                      -6.46
     **    Taiwan Stock Index                          -11.85
     03/93 U.S. Treasury Bond                          -21.60
     03/93 U.S. 10 year Treasury Notes                   0.00
     03/93 Cocoa                                       -42.22
     03/93 Coffee                                      -51.16
     03/93 Cotton                                      +41.50
     02/93 Pork Bellies                                 +2.96
     03/93 Sugar                                       +29.87
     03/93 Soybean                                     -46.30
     03/93 Soybean Meal                                -37.03
     03/93 Soybean Oil                                 -51.11
     03/93 CRB Index                                   -46.25

          Source:  Paul C.  Y.  Huang, Taipei.  Mr.  Huang
     specializes in economic-financial consulting, investment
     management, and training for professional financial licenses.
     Tel. & fax:  [phone].

          ** These "equivalent contracts" are included here for
     comparative purposes.
          * Profit/Loss calculations are changes in Wednesdays'
     closing prices relative to the respective exchange's initial
     margin deposit requirement of one futures contract.

                           ____________________

     Consumers' expectation, economic growth

          The U.S. Conference Board said on Tuesday that its
     index of consumer confidence surged to 78.3 in December from a
     revised 65.6 in November.  The increase was stronger than
     expected and put the index, which is calculated on a 1985 base
     of 100, at its highest level since April 1991.

          Particularly noteworthy is the strong rise in the Board's
     index of consumer expectations, which surged to 104.5 in
     December from 85.7 in November.  In contrast, the Board's
     "present situation" index rose only to 39 from 35.5 in
     November.

          This sharp difference in growth between expectation and
     present situation suggests that people are making very big bets
     on Bill Clinton -- a shift toward a willingness to believe
     something is going on and behave accordingly.

     Clinton's new economic policies

          Among the economic issues confronting the new
     president-elect Bill Clinton, two stand out in particular --
     jobs growth and federal deficit.

          Robert R.  Reich, the Harvard professor and the new
     secretary of labor, believes that if corporations and consumers
     become energetic enough to make the American economy expand by
     more than 3 percent, then proposals for a special government
     stimulus -- more public-works spending or new tax credits or
     pressure on the Federal Reserve to again lower interest rates
     -- are likely to be postponed or dropped.

          Reich's conclusion of a benchmark of "more than 3
     percent" is based on the rate at which people are entering the
     labor force, about 1 percent of the 108 million people with
     jobs.  To keep up with new job seekers and annual productivity
     gain of about 2.5 percent, growth must then reach a total of
     more than 3 percent.

          The behavior of interest rates in the financial futures
     market mirrors the other major issue confronting Bill Clinton
     -- the monstrous $300 billion federal deficit.

          The Congressional Budget Office now sees a deficit of
     nearly $300 billion in 1997, about 4 percent of gross domestic
     product, and heading higher.  Some analysts believe that the
     Clinton administration would have to find $100 billion more in
     cuts and tax increases than the president-elect had planned on.

          Others believe that the new administration may use the bad
     news from the budget office to broach idea of imposing
     unpopular gas and benefit taxes, stretching deficit goals out
     over the entire decade and shielding some new spending programs
     by tucking them into so-called capital budget and therefore
     effectively removing them from deficit calculations.

                             ______________