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1990-08-10
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STOCKMASTER - Stock analysis programs
(C) COPYRIGHT AUG 19, 1990
Published By : Stock Market Decisions
P.O. BOX 362
Dublin , Pa 18917
STOCKMASTER --- INTRODUCTION
---------------------------------------
At the touch of a key, create charts & PLOTS to supply you with
the advantage you need to get the maximum for your investment
dollars.
1) Stock selection
2) Buy/Sell Signals
3) Portfolio Management
It contains five programs to aid your
================= STOCK MARKET ANALYSIS =================
GETTING STARTED
You can Run the STOCKMASTER programs by typing the name
of the program you wish to operate and hit RETURN.
* The stock price data on this diskette are for demonstration
purposes ONLY !!! They are NOT to be construed as a
recommendation to buy or sell ANY OF THE STOCKS THEREIN.
* The stock price data supplied on this disk are based on old
stock price data. You are encouraged to send $5.00 for an
up-to-date stock price data disk. An order form supplied at
the end of this text is for your convenience.
* The results are an indication of the STOCKMASTER'S
past performance (NOT a guarantee of future results).
The STOCKMASTER programs and stock price data are used for
demonstration purposes only. The program user assumes all risks
associated with the purchase and/or sale of stocks. Due to the
continuing unpredictability of the stock market, there is no
guarantee of profit from the use of these programs.
REGISTRATION
Individuals, computer clubs, bulletin boards, and shareware
software distributors are granted permission to copy and
distribute the STOCKMASTER programs so long as the total price
does not exceed $5.00. A registered copy of the STOCKMASTER
programs may be purchased for $25.00 (see the ORDER FORM below).
Purchasing a registered of these programs provides the following
benefits:
1) Personalized copy with the latest version STOCKMASTER
programs plus any additional programs that have been developed.
2) A copy of the latest up-to-date stock prices. An up-to-date
stock price data disk allows the computerized stock market trader
to start immediately.
STOCKMASTER PROGRAM MENU
--------------------------
BSPLOT - buy/sell timing plot and price data.
OSCPLOT - display N week oscillator and price data.
RELVAL - Display Stock price as if it were calculated based on
the DJIA and price data
VISIPORT - Portfolio management metrics for comparing relative
performance of all stocks in your portfolio and plot
stock prices.
SPRED - Compute future stock values based upon power series
trend and periodic stock price behavior.
DATGEN - Stock price data update program to update existing
data files and create new stock price data files that
contain your favorite stocks.
The B/SPLOT program
--------------------
Exponential average smooths the stock price data to remove the
high frequency hash. The buy / sell (B/S) index is derived by
subtracting the difference between the lightly smoothed data and
the heavily smoothed data.
The Sell signal when B/S index IS GREATER THAN the B/S index's
previous low.
The Buy signal when B/S index IS LESS THAN it's previous high.
Remember to wait a reasonable amount of time to confirm either
the high or low points of the B/S index on the B/S plot.
In general, a stock is strong and moving up in price, when B/S is
above the ZERO level. Notice, the ZERO level is that
horizontal solid line that appears in the center of the plot. The
reverse is also true, a weak stock is indicated by a series
of B/S values below the ZERO line.
Notice that the Stock price versus time plot is also plotted
on the same screen for quick price reference. You can use the
B/SPLOT for a quick check on your stock behavior: B/S values
mostly above the zero line generally indicates a stock with an
upward trend. B/S values mostly below the zero line usually
indicates a stock with a downward price trend. Caution it is
risky to buy a stock when B/S is below the zero line unless it
has created a clear bottom, and there is good reason to believe
the stock will move in an upward direction. Also avoid a stock
that hovers close to the zero line. Wait until it clearly
moves into positive territory.
The OSCPLOT program
--------------------
An oscillator value is the average difference between a stock
price taken one time and the price of the same stock taken after
some fixed time interval. For example, suppose we want a five
week oscillator. We take today's price minus the price five
weeks ago. Last week's price minus the price five weeks before
that, and so on. Then we average of these differences to form the
oscillator plot. The purpose of the oscillator is to find where
we are positioned within the five week cycle. For example, if we
are above the zero line and a top has formed then this is
considered a sell signal, because a five week cycle has been
assumed and we can expect a new local bottom to follow in the
cycle. However, the stock price may not follow a five week cycle.
Instead, it may follow a 6 or a 7 week cycle, etc. Simply run the
OSCPLOT program using different oscillator sizes (cycle
durations). Notice, the cyclic shape of the oscillator plot.
This is it's purpose to boil down the many wiggles of stock price
plots into some sort of local buy (at the bottom) or sell (at the
top) signal.
The RELVAL program
--------------------
What is the intrinsic value of my stock? Is it moving (up or
down) on it's own value? Or is it moving because the DJIA is
moving (up or down)? The RELVAL program attempts to answer these
questions by computing the stock price based on the DJIA prices
P(DJIA). The results indicate that the actual price, P(ACTUAL)
can be above the P(DJIA) or below the P(DJIA).
IF P(ACTUAL) greater than P(DJIA) THEN intrinsic value is HIGH
IF P(ACTUAL) less than P(DJIA) THEN intrinsic value is LOW.
In some stocks you can actually see the intrinsic value change
over the weeks. There is usually a good reason for this change.
Expect the stock price to reflect this value change as time
continues. It is usually better to buy and hold stocks with
high intrinsic value.
The VISIPORT program
----------------------
This program ranks the stocks in your portfolio based on the
average percent price change in a week. If a stock is a good
performer (positive price direction) it will usually continue to
move in the up direction because of it's own upward inertia.
Something must enter the financial picture to alter it's potential
earning power in order to alter it's upward movement. The average
percent price change per week is used to rank each of the stocks
that you own or would like to own. VISIPORT, VISIble PORTfolio
allows you to see at a glance how each of the stocks compare with
each other. The rankings for each your stocks is tabulated for
the last ten weeks. This allows for a qualitative trend compar-
ison. The recent prices, B/S slope direction and level are also
displayed. At one glance four different stock performance measure-
ments are available.
You can see a price, relative value, trend plot displayed on
the same screen display for any stock in your portfolio. Simply,
select the stock number and there it is. You can look at the
metric tabular printout, see which stock is strong and has
upward potential. Then you substantiate your opinion with a plot
of the stock. This is how VISIPORT can be used for stock
selection, portfolio management, and timing decisions.
The SPRED program
-------------------
Stock prices move up and down with no apparent reason.
Sometimes you wish you could have some way to predict the next
movement. You know this is an impossible dream. But if you assume
stock prices follow some behavior pattern (linear, cyclic, random,
etc.) then you can at least predict in mathematical sense where
their next move is most likely be. This assumption is very
weak. Therefore, the results of the SINUSOIDAL-POWER SERIES
PREDICTOR are to be taken as an indication of the next stock price
direction assuming all the financial factors remain the same.
The user selects the stock and inputs the sinusoidal period.
This period is roughly the time interval for one complete stock
price cycle. The actual value you select is not critical. You can
experiment to find which sinusoidal period gives the minimum error
of fit. The output of SPRED is a plot of the stock price, with an
envelope bounding the upper and lower limits. The size of the
envelope depends on the error of fit. The smaller the size
(width) of the envelope the better the sinusoidal period fit the
actual data. Also, the smaller the error of fit the less
uncertainty about where and can expect to see this stock price in
the future. Notice, the envelope continues beyond the stock price
plot by a number of weeks. This is the predicted price movement
for the next time interval.
To continue :..... Type name of the program you wish to run.
Leave your DOS disk in drive A. Place the STOCKMASTER disk in
drive B.
STOCKMASTER PROGRAM MENU
--------------------------
For Color Graphic Adapter (DOS 3.2 or higher)
BSPLOT - buy/sell timing plot and price data.
OSCPLOT - display N week oscillator and price data.
RELVAL - Display Stock price as if it were calculated based on
the DJIA and price data
VISIPORT - Portfolio management metrics for comparing relative
performance of all stocks in your portfolio and plot
stock prices.
SPRED - Compute future stock values based power series trend
and periodic stock price behavior.
NOTE : If you have a Hercules Graphics display, then you
need to install a Color Graphics Emulator program. These emulator
programs are available from most PUBLIC DOMAIN SOFTWARE vendors.
You should consider getting one of these emulators because they
open a whole world of color programs to you, including the
STOCKMASTER series.
NOTE : all the other files that are not listed above...... are
data files that you may access for STOCKMASTER demonstration.
==================================================================
ORDER FORM
STOCK MARKET DECISIONS
P. O. BOX 362
DUBLIN, PA. 18917
ITEM QUANTITY PRICE TOTAL
1) UP-TO-DATE Stock Price data disk
Standard 5 1/4 diskette (LOW DENSITY) ________ $5.00 $_______
2) Personalized, Registered Copy of
STOCKMASTER programs ________ $ 25.00 $_______
Std. 5 1/4 diskette (LOW DENSITY)
TOTAL $_______
Please make check payable to S.M.Decisions.
Registrant Name__________________________________________________
Address _________________________________________________________
City _______________________________________ State ______________
ZIP _________________
==================================================================