Social change unlikely but worth working for

Richard Nisbett of the University of Michigan is concerned about what would happen if young people were to realise that efforts at making significant social changes are seldom rewarded with success. 'I think we owe change in society', he said, 'to people with an erroneous belief about the probability of change - that a little effort produces an enormous change. If they hadn't had those wildly inflated beliefs, they might not have acted the way they did, and we might not have seen any change.'

Is it therefore best to keep the young in the dark about these low probabilities? Nisbet has faith in the ideal of maximum rationality, so he cannot endorse such deception. But while we are lowering young peoples' estimates of the probability of effecting changes, he says, we should also correct their beliefs about the amount of effort it's worth expending for an outcome whose probability of occurrence is low. 'It's often quite rational to invest tremendous efforts in a project where there's little chance of success', he says, 'if you care enough about the outcome.'