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91-11-16.DLY
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1991-11-17
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/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
16 NOVEMBER, 1991
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(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 16 NOVEMBER
------------------------------------------------------
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 320, 11/16/91
10.7 FLUX=165.5 90-AVG=198 SSN=113 BKI=4445 3333 BAI=023
BGND-XRAY=B7.7 FLU1=5.0E+05 FLU10=3.0E+04 PKI=3444 4234 PAI=023
BOU-DEV=043,059,042,076,031,022,026,030 DEV-AVG=041 NT SWF=00:000
XRAY-MAX= C5.7 @ 0502UT XRAY-MIN= B7.1 @ 1938UT XRAY-AVG= C1.1
NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 1310UT NEUTN-MIN= -001% @ 2345UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.6%
PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1245UT PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2350UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55318NT @ 0556UT BOUTF-MIN=55270NT @ 1146UT BOUTF-AVG=55293NT
GOES7-MAX=E:+115NT@ 1021UT GOES7-MIN=N:-025NT@ 1022UT G7-AVG=+065,+052,+004
GOES6-MAX=P:+129NT@ 0007UT GOES6-MIN=N:-050NT@ 0442UT G6-AVG=+075,-001,+021
FLUXFCST=STD:168,175,185;SESC:165,170,180 BAI/PAI-FCST=025,025,018/025,020,015
KFCST=2334 4644 4545 5333 27DAY-AP=023,020 27DAY-KP=2434 3544 3344 3332
WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*AURMIDWCH
ALERTS=**245STRM:0130-0814
!!END-DATA!!
BRIEF SUMMARY OF EVENTS
-----------------------
Solar activity was low today. Region 6919 (S12W27) became dormant after
yesterdays major X1.5/3B tenflare. This region is continuing to gradually
decay. There is a definite risk for an isolated minor flare from this region
over the next 24 to 48 hours.
Region 6921 (N10W56) was fairly quiet today. Only a single minor
subflare was observed from this region over the last 24 hours.
A single new region was numbered today: Region 6927 (N07E62).
Solar activity should be low to moderate. There is a fairly high
probability activity will become increasingly energetic over the next day or
two. Region 6919 is the best candidate for visible M-class activity.
Bright limb surging was noted on the southeast limb at 04:15 UT which is in
the vicinity of where old Region 6891 should be returning. This region may
return in a form capable of producing further minor M-class flares. A risk
for an isolated major flare on the limb also exists as this region rotates
back into view over the next 48 hours.
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active over the last 24
hours. A small coronal hole is believed to be responsible for this activity.
Auroral activity increased for a brief period during the local evening and
early morning hours of 15/16 November. Despite this, most of the activity
remained relatively dormant. Geomagnetic and auroral activity should
increase to mostly active or possibly weak minor storm levels late in the UT
day of 17 November as an impact from the last major flare is expected to
arrive. Target time is near or after approximately 14:00 UT on 17 November.
HF propagation conditions were normal to slightly below normal today.
Slightly increased levels of noise and fading were observed over most regions
and particularly on paths traversing the polar or high latitude regions.
Conditions may become degraded further when the flare impact from the last
major flare arrives later on the 17th. Conditions should remain generally
near normal to below normal through the 18th. The risk for daytime SWFs is
steadily increasing as old Region 6891 nears the east limb. There is a
slight chance that a few isolated SWFs could be rather strong in nature.
However, they are not expected to be particularly long in duration.
** End of Daily Update **