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91-11-15.DLY
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1991-11-15
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/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
15 NOVEMBER, 1991
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 15 NOVEMBER
------------------------------------------------------
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 319, 11/15/91
10.7 FLUX=173.2 90-AVG=199 SSN=135 BKI=3334 5432 BAI=021
BGND-XRAY=B7.3 FLU1=1.2E+06 FLU10=7.6E+03 PKI=3345 4332 PAI=021
BOU-DEV=029,027,032,069,072,044,024,018 DEV-AVG=039 NT SWF=01:017
XRAY-MAX= X1.5 @ 2239UT XRAY-MIN= B6.5 @ 1700UT XRAY-AVG= C1.8
NEUTN-MAX= +004% @ 1750UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 0910UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.5%
PCA-MAX= +0.3DB @ 1500UT PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2350UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55311NT @ 0328UT BOUTF-MIN=55263NT @ 1830UT BOUTF-AVG=55293NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+165NT@ 2017UT GOES7-MIN=N:-024NT@ 1411UT G7-AVG=+082,+035,+005
GOES6-MAX=P:+192NT@ 2105UT GOES6-MIN=E:-045NT@ 0447UT G6-AVG=+093,-008,+020
FLUXFCST=STD:175,185,200;SESC:170,180,195 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,015/015,015,015
KFCST=3355 3223 2345 3223 27DAY-AP=020,023 27DAY-KP=3444 3332 2434 3544
WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*PROTFLR;*PROTON;*PCA
ALERTS=**MAJFLR:X1.5/3B,S12W13(6919),2233-2239-2245,II=3@2237;
**TENFLR:270SFU@2239;**PROTNENH
!!END-DATA!!
NOTE: Protons at greater than 10 and 100 MeV are presently very weakly
enhanced, just barely above background levels. The enhancement occurred near
01:00 UT on 16 November (as this report is being compiled).
BRIEF SUMMARY OF EVENTS
-----------------------
Solar activity became high today with the unexpected eruption of an
impulsive class X1.5/3B tenflare from Region 6919 (now located near S12W15).
The flare peaked at 22:39 UT and was located at S12W13. A weak tenflare was
observed at 22:39 UT, lasting only 3 minutes. However, a major Type II sweep
has been reported with this event at 22:37 UT. An associated Type IV has not
been reported. This event could have a low to possibly moderate impact on 17
November or early on 18 November (target period is near 14:00 UT on 17
November).
Region 6919 experienced continued decay today. It provided no
precursors to this large major flare. Only occassional subflaring was
observed throughout the day. Region 6915 (N19W62) as well as Region 6921
(N09W43) were also reported to be in a state of decay today. Both remained
quiet.
A single new region was assigned today: Region 6926 (N10E43).
Solar activity should remain mostly low. However, the recent major
flare eruption may indicate possible future instability in Region 6919 which
might produce a few isolated minor M-class flares. A slight possibility also
exists for another major flare.
The geomagnetic field has been mostly unsettled to slightly active
today. The appearance of a weak coronal hole may be responsible for the
increased activity levels. Conditions are expected to remain mostly
unsettled until near or after 14:00 UT on 17 November when a possible
interplanetary shock from todays major flare may arrive. If a shock arrives,
conditions could become active to possibly minor storm through the 18th.
HF propagation conditions have been near normal throughout the day over
all regions. Conditions should remain near normal until near or after 14:00
UT on 17 November when an interplanetary shock from todays major flare may
arrive. Conditions thereafter could become moderately disturbed over the
high latitude regions, and possibly lightly disturbed over the middle
latitude regions. Low latitude signal paths should not be significantly
affected if this disturbance arrives.
** End of Daily Update **