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91-11-10.DLY
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1991-11-11
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DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
10 NOVEMBER, 1991
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 10 NOVEMBER
------------------------------------------------------
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 314, 11/10/91
10.7 FLUX=195.2 90-AVG=201 SSN=209 BKI=3335 3222 BAI=016
BGND-XRAY=C1.1 FLU1=*.*E*** FLU10=7.9E+03 PKI=3234 3332 PAI=016
BOU-DEV=024,026,028,085,036,017,019,017 DEV-AVG=031 NT SWF=03:048
XRAY-MAX= M7.9 @ 2013UT XRAY-MIN= B7.9 @ 2143UT XRAY-AVG= C2.7
NEUTN-MAX= +005% @ 1955UT NEUTN-MIN= -004% @ 0005UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.3%
PCA-MAX= +0.3DB @ 1955UT PCA-MIN= -0.8DB @ 1800UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55318NT @ 1405UT BOUTF-MIN=55278NT @ 1830UT BOUTF-AVG=55299NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+133NT@ 1433UT GOES7-MIN=N:-009NT@ 0947UT G7-AVG=+083,+047,+006
GOES6-MAX=P:+139NT@ 2010UT GOES6-MIN=E:-036NT@ 0438UT G6-AVG=+095,-005,+022
FLUXFCST=STD:194,186,180;SESC:195,185,180 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,020,015/020,023,018
KFCST=3333 4455 5444 3333 27DAY-AP=007,006 27DAY-KP=2112 2221 1112 2221
WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*PROTFLR;*PROTON;*PCA;*AURMIDWCH
ALERTS=**MAJFLR:M6.9/1N,S11E58(6919),0125-0135-0139,II:2@0137;
**MAJFLR:M7.9/1N,S13E55(6919),2004-2013-2033,II:3@2006;
**TENFLR:550SFU@2005,DUR:14;**MINFLR:M2.2@0654
!!END-DATA!!
BRIEF SUMMARY OF EVENTS
-----------------------
Solar activity was high today. Region 6919 (S12E50) was responsible for
two major flares and one minor event. The first major flare was an M6.9/1N
flare which erupted at 01:35 UT. This event was associated with minor radio
emissions and a weak Type II sweep. The second major event was a class
M7.9/1N tenflare at 20:13 UT which was associated with a 550 sfu tenflare at
20:05 UT which lasted 14 minutes. A major Type II sweep was also observed
(importance 3) at 20:06 UT. This event was not associated with an observed
Type IV. Both of these major events were average major events and were not
particularly exceptional apart from the major Type II burst which was
observed in the latter event. Region 6919 was also responsible for a minor
class M2.2/2B flare with minor radio emissions at 06:54 UT.
Region 6919 has maintained a stable, yet moderately complex optical and
magnetic structure over the last 24 hours. The lack of any signs of
reconfiguration suggests that further major flares are likely to be observed
over the next 24 to 72 hours. There is a chance that some of the flaring from
this region could become terrestrially influencable within the next 48 to 72
hours.
Region 6906 (S17W81) is the only other region which is capable of
producing major flare activity. This region has remained stable over the
last 24 hours. It is now approaching the west limb and will be out of view
by 12 November.
Region 6915 (N20E05) slowed its rate of growth today and was
flare-quiet. Two new regions were numbered today: Region 6921 (N09E27) and
6922 (S18E32).
The geomagnetic field has been mostly unsettled today. Conditions may
become a bit more active later this UT day (11 November) if a shock from the
last X1.1/1B tenflare arrives. There is only a slight risk for minor
storming from this shock. Presently, a geomagnetic storm is not expected to
materialize. There is also a near equal possibility that we will not observe
a shock from this event at all. Forecasts are calling for generally active
to unsettled levels over the next 72 hours. By the end of the period,
conditions should become generally unsettled again.
HF propagation conditions improved substantially from conditions
observed on 09 November. During the first six hours of the UT day,
conditions over most regions were significantly degraded. MUFs were down
between 20 and 35 percent from seasonal norms. However, as the day
progressed, conditions rapidly improved over all regions. Middle and low
latitudes improved with fair to good propagation conditions while high
latitude regions became mostly poor (from near blackout conditions on 09
November). Despite these improvements, overall conditions remained below
normal. Most regions should observe slightly below normal to near normal
propagation conditions by 12 November.
** End of Daily Update **