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91-11-06.DLY
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1991-11-07
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DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
06 NOVEMBER, 1991
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 06 NOVEMBER
------------------------------------------------------
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 310, 11/06/91
10.7 FLUX=186.7 90-AVG=198 SSN=196 BKI=4632 2323 BAI=021
BGND-XRAY=C1.1 FLU1=*.*E*** FLU10=1.2E+04 PKI=4532 2332 PAI=019
BOU-DEV=060,129,036,016,017,035,015,024 DEV-AVG=041 NT SWF=03:016
XRAY-MAX= M4.7 @ 0450UT XRAY-MIN= C1.0 @ 1735UT XRAY-AVG= C2.0
NEUTN-MAX= +006% @ 1955UT NEUTN-MIN= +000% @ 1605UT NEUTN-AVG= +2.7%
PCA-MAX= +0.4DB @ 0500UT PCA-MIN= -3.0DB @ 1050UT PCA-AVG= -0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55326NT @ 0310UT BOUTF-MIN=55281NT @ 1740UT BOUTF-AVG=55306NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+117NT@ 1938UT GOES7-MIN=N:-002NT@ 2358UT G7-AVG=+079,+047,+008
GOES6-MAX=P:+128NT@ 2016UT GOES6-MIN=E:-037NT@ 0450UT G6-AVG=+089,-005,+023
FLUXFCST=STD:190,190,195;SESC:185,185,195 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,010/012,010,010
KFCST=4222 3332 3222 3322 27DAY-AP=010,008 27DAY-KP=2122 3332 1112 3222
WARNINGS=*MAJFLR
ALERTS=**MINFLR:M4.7@0450;**TENFLR:730SFU@0446,DUR:4;**MINFLR:M1.2@1931;
**MINFLR:M2.8@2359;**TENFLR:@2355,DUR:3
!!END-DATA!!
PLEASE NOTE: The satellite hardware problem affecting the greater than 1 MeV
proton measurements has been corrected. Proton fluence values
for greater than 1 MeV should be reinstated tommorrow (07 Nov).
BRIEF SUMMARY OF EVENTS
-----------------------
Four minor M-class flares kept activity at moderate levels throughout
the day today. Three of the four events occurred in Region 6906 (S16W30)
which has shown continual growth in all aspects except magnetic complexity.
It still has a fairly simple magnetic structure. It should continue to
produce minor C and/or M-class flares over the next 24 hours. Two of the
M-class events were associated with brief tenflares. The largest was
associated with todays M4.7/SB event from Region 6906 at 04:50 UT. The
tenflare was measured at 730 sfu at 04:46 UT and lasted only 4 minutes.
The only other notable event which occurred today was the disappearance
of a large 24-degree solar filament in the southeast quadrant of the solar
disk. It was last seen at 20:22 UT on was centered near S32E32. There is a
slight chance this eruption may have a minor terrestrial impact within the
next 2 to 4 days. Nothing significant is expected, if anything materializes.
Solar activity should continue moderate over the next 24 hours. Region
6906 is the best candidate for continued M-class flare production. There is
also a slight risk for a possible major flare near or behind the northeast
limb over the next 24 to 72 hours. Until the region responsible for
yesterdays flurry of limb activity materializes for analysis, a risk will
continue to exist.
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels for most of the day. A brief
period of minor to major storming was observed over all latitudes between
03:00 and 06:00 UT. Conditions rapidly returned to quiet levels thereafter.
Activity should continue predominantly quiet to unsettled over the next 48 to
72 hours. If the recent filament disappearance has any affect at all, it
will be only minor - perhaps increasing geomagnetic activity to active
levels. No storming is anticipated over the next week. We are now entering
the quieter space environment and should observe mostly quiet to unsettled
geomagnetic and auroral conditions over the next week to ten days, barring
influential solar activity.
HF propagation conditions have been mostly normal over the middle
latitude regions, normal to above normal over the low latitude regions and
normal to slightly below normal over the high latitude regions. MUFs were
enhanced over the low latitude regions today. These enhancements were
confined to the low latitudes. Middle latitudes observed generally good
propagation conditions with normal to slightly below normal MUFs. Reports of
good openings to Europe on 10 meters have been received from several regions
in North America. As geomagnetic activity subsides, the probability for
enhanced 10 meter propagation during the morning and afternoon or evening
hours will be higher than it has been over the last week.
** End of Daily Update **