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- DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
-
- 01 NOVEMBER, 1991
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- (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
-
-
- SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 01 NOVEMBER
- ------------------------------------------------------
-
- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 305, 11/01/91
- 10.7 FLUX=230.2 90-AVG=197 SSN=274 BKI=5356 6655 BAI=055
- BGND-XRAY=C1.4 FLU1=*.*E*** FLU10=3.4E+04 PKI=5455 6676 PAI=072
- BOU-DEV=085,021,091,151,170,155,076,083 DEV-AVG=104 NT SWF=01:009
- XRAY-MAX= M1.4 @ 2029UT XRAY-MIN= C1.2 @ 1229UT XRAY-AVG= C2.3
- NEUTN-MAX= +000% @ 2355UT NEUTN-MIN= -009% @ 0640UT NEUTN-AVG= -4.3%
- PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2010UT PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1700UT PCA-AVG= -0.1DB
- BOUTF-MAX=55345NT @ 2106UT BOUTF-MIN=55211NT @ 1207UT BOUTF-AVG=55281NT
- GOES7-MAX=P:+156NT@ 2105UT GOES7-MIN=P:-141NT@ 1530UT G7-AVG=+056,+053,-011
- GOES6-MAX=P:+208NT@ 2105UT GOES6-MIN=P:-088NT@ 2003UT G6-AVG=+083,+014,+013
- FLUXFCST=STD:223,210,190;SESC:220,210,195 BAI/PAI-FCST=040,025,020/065,040,025
- KFCST=3467 5445 4445 5434 27DAY-AP=020,023 27DAY-KP=1123 3545 5444 3332
- WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*PROTFLR;*PROTON;*PCA;*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN;*AURLOWWCH
- ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.4@2029;**FORBUSH;**MAJSTRM
- !!END-DATA!!
-
-
- BRIEF SUMMARY OF EVENTS
- -----------------------
-
- Solar activity was moderate today. Region 6891 (S11W60) was responsible
- for most of the minor flare activity observed today, including a class
- M1.4/SF flare at 20:29 UT. This region continued to show decay, but at a
- less rapid rate. Despite this, the area is still very complex and potent
- magnetically and may yet generate another major flare before it departs the
- west limb early on 04 November. Until then, the possibility for related
- proton activity remains high enough to warrant proton and PCA warnings.
-
- Regions 6892 (S18W59) and 6893 (N17W38) also produced numerous C-class
- subflares today. Both of these areas seemed to show a minor amount of decay
- today although they remain capable of continuing their production of minor
- M-class events. There is also a slight chance for an isolated minor M-class
- flare from one of these regions.
-
- Strong Calcium XV emissions were observed on the southeast limb today
- associated with the arrival of new Region 6905 (S08E75). This region may
- have been responsible for producing the recent optically uncorrelated minor
- M-class x-ray flares. Strong Calcium XV emissions were also noted on the
- southwest limb where Region 6891 is now approaching.
-
- The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to severe storm levels
- today. Most of the severe storming was confined to the high latitude
- regions. Elsewhere, major geomagnetic storming was frequently observed. The
- GOES-6 and GOES-7 spacecraft experienced magnetopause crossings during the
- day today. GOES-7 was affected for the longest period of time, between
- 15:27 UT and 16:17 UT. At 20:02 UT, both spacecraft observed simultaneous
- crossings.
-
- Conditions should remain at minor to major storm levels over the next 24
- hours. Conditions should gradually decay during the UT day of 02 November.
- By 03 November, predominantly active conditions are anticipated with possible
- periods of minor storming during the local evening and early morning hours.
- This activity is thought to be related to the last X2.5/3B flare from Region
- 6891 as well as a possible influential well placed coronal hole just to the
- east of Region 6891.
-
- Auroral activity began the day at mostly moderate levels. Nothing too
- energetic was observed until after 10:00 UT when geomagnetic and auroral
- activity became significantly enhanced. Conditions have now become
- sporadically stormy. Substorm periods should continue to diminish in
- frequency and duration over the next 24 hours as the storm abates.
- Observations of auroral activity are expected primarily over the middle and
- high latitude regions (primarily the northerly middle and high latitude
- regions).
-
- HF propagation conditions were below normal today over all areas.
- Middle latitudes experienced significant degradations in signal qualities.
- Reports of occassional signal blackouts were also received from many latitude
- regions. Lower latitudes were not as strongly affected, but nevertheless
- witnessed increased levels of noise and fading throughout the UT day.
- Conditions are expected to remain below normal for 02 November. More notable
- improvements are anticipated for 03 November. Conditions may return to near-
- normal by 04 and/or 05 November.
-
- Next week, we will begin entering the quieter sector of the space
- environment which should return us to much more favorable and stabler
- conditions for HF radio propagation.
-
-
- ** End of Daily Update **
-