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91-10-24.DLY
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1991-10-26
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/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
24 OCTOBER, 1991
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 24 OCTOBER
-----------------------------------------------------
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 297, 10/24/91
10.7 FLUX=230.5 90-AVG=194 SSN=207 BKI=4243 3334 BAI=018
BGND-XRAY=C2.3 FLU1=*.*E*** FLU10=7.3E+03 PKI=4243 3333 PAI=018
BOU-DEV=000,016,040,023,031,038,023,042 DEV-AVG=026 NT SWF=09:133
XRAY-MAX= X2.1 @ 0240UT XRAY-MIN= C1.9 @ 0001UT XRAY-AVG= C5.7
NEUTN-MAX= +003% @ 1210UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 0700UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.5%
PCA-MAX= +0.3DB @ 2310UT PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2210UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55310NT @ 0451UT BOUTF-MIN=55264NT @ 1758UT BOUTF-AVG=55291NT
GOES7-MAX=E:+135NT@ 0624UT GOES7-MIN=N:-012NT@ 0804UT G7-AVG=+063,+059,+007
GOES6-MAX=P:+128NT@ 2110UT GOES6-MIN=E:-084NT@ 0658UT G6-AVG=+072,-011,+015
FLUXFCST=STD:243,250,255;SESC:250,260,265 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,010,010/015,010,015
KFCST=2345 4332 2234 3222 27DAY-AP=033,013 27DAY-KP=4444 4454 2213 4433
WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*PROTFLR;*PROTON;*AURMIDWCH
ALERTS=**MAJFLR:X2.1/2B,S13E56(6891),0231-0240-0255;**MINFLR:M1.9@0056;
**MAJFLR:M9.7/1N,S12E48(6891),2224-2241-2251;**MINFLR:M1.4@0124;
**MINFLR:M1.2@0631;**MINFLR:M1.2@1123;**MINFLR:M2.5@1657;
**MINFLR:M3.2@1716
!!END-DATA!!
BRIEF SUMMARY OF EVENTS
-----------------------
A large increase in energetic activity was observed today over
yesterdays values. A total of six minor M-class flares were observed
together with the eruption of two major flares, all from Region 6891
(S12E48).
The largest flare of the day was a class X2.1/2B flare at 02:40 UT.
Although large, this event was not associated with any Type II or IV sweeps
or any significant radio emissions. As a result, no terrestrial impacts are
anticipated from this event.
The other major energetic flare was a class M9.7/1N event at 22:41 UT.
Like its predecessor, this event was radio-quiet and void of Type II or IV
sweeps. Most of the radio emissions were near the 100 sfu range. The only
sweep observed was a moderate Type III sweep. This event is also not
expected to have a terrestrial impact.
The increase in energetic activity was evident today in the behavior of
the 10.7 cm solar radio flux, which jumped from 194 to 231 today. A similar,
but less dramatic increase in the solar flux is anticipated for 25 October
(see the forecasts in the data sets above).
It is interesting to note that Region 6891 has, in a single day,
surpassed its entire M and X flare output from all of its last rotation when
the region was known as Region 6850. And it does not appear to be ready to
let up. Recent observations indicate that the activity has failed to cause
any significant restructuring of the region. It continues to exist in an
unstable configuration and should continue to produce minor to major
energetic events. There is an increasing threat that one or several of these
future energetic events may be capable of producing terrestrial impacts.
All of the other regions presently visible have been flare-quiet.
Region 6886 (N09W13) continued to grow rapidly today, but did not spawn any
notable flares.
New Region 6893 (N16E69) was the only region numbered today. This
region was responsible for a minor surge on the northeast limb early in the
UT day.
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active today. The coronal hole
which has been responsible for the minor elevated activity levels should move
out of influential range over the next 24 to 48 hours. Therafter, a return
to generally unsettled conditions are anticipated, barring possible future
influential major energetic solar events.
HF propagation conditions have been near normal. However, numerous
periods of daytime short-wave fadeouts may have been observed over the low
and middle latitude regions during the daylight hours. The impressive number
of minor M-class events may have been capable of producing degradations over
the sunlit sectors for over two full hours (all events combined). Todays two
major solar flares were associated with moderate SWFs lasting between 15 and
30 minutes each. Daytime degradation of low and middle latitude path signals
can be expected over the next 24 to 72 hours as energetic solar activity
continues to erupt from Region 6891.
** End of Daily Update **