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91-10-10.DLY
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1991-10-22
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DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
10 OCTOBER, 1991
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 10 OCTOBER
-----------------------------------------------------
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 283, 10/10/91
10.7 FLUX=180 90-AVG=198 SSN=230 BKI=4453 3332 BAI=021
BGND-XRAY=C1.1 FLU1=6.5E+05 FLU10=7.9E+03 PKI=4553 4432 PAI=026
BOU-DEV=066,062,112,022,039,026,022,016 DEV-AVG=045 NT SWF=00:000
XRAY-MAX= C5.7 @ 1453UT XRAY-MIN= B9.6 @ 0117UT XRAY-AVG= C1.6
NEUTN-MAX= +004% @ 2010UT NEUTN-MIN= -003% @ 1015UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.3%
PCA-MAX= +0.3DB @ 0710UT PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2155UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55318NT @ 0330UT BOUTF-MIN=55276NT @ 0706UT BOUTF-AVG=55303NT
GOES7-MAX=E:+135NT@ 0630UT GOES7-MIN=N:-047NT@ 0528UT G7-AVG=+077,+058,+004
GOES6-MAX=P:+130NT@ 0017UT GOES6-MIN=E:-031NT@ 0518UT G6-AVG=+082,-002,+025
FLUXFCST=STD:180,180,180;SESC:180,180,180 BAI/PAI-FCST=012,007,007/015,015,010
KFCST=1054 4011 1005 4011 27DAY-AP=024,011 27DAY-KP=4344 4432 4223 2222
WARNINGS=
ALERTS=**245STRM:0834-0924UT
!!END-DATA!!
BRIEF SUMMARY OF EVENTS
-----------------------
Solar activity was low today. The largest flare observed was a
long-duration class C5.4 event at 14:54 UT. The only optical manifestation
of this event was an impressive surge on the southwest limb near S18. A
hydrogen alpha GIF image of this surge is available. This event is most
likely the result of a flare from old Regions 6850/6853 which are now three
days beyond the east limb. This surge was visible out to 0.27 solar radii.
A second surge east of Region 6873 (S24E49) became visible today and was
imaged by LEAR. A copy of this image is also available for FTP. Region 6873
is a mature, stable spot group with a D-sized leader spot and a minor spot
complex trailing behind. There are some mixed polarities in the trailer spot
group, although there are no signs of development at this time. This region
may be capable of spawning an isolated M-class flare, although most of the
activity is expected to remain within the C-class range.
The Potential Major Solar Flare Warning has been cancelled. The regions
presently visible do not appear to be a threat at the present time and are
not expected to produce any significant major flare activity.
Region 6873 (S24E49) continued to grow today, but at a slower pace than
was observed yesterday. This region is capable of spawning C-class flares.
Region 6877 (N07E59) was the only new region numbered.
Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet to unsettled. However, between
06:00 UT and 09:00 UT the field became slightly disturbed as a result of
isolated substorm activity. High latitudes observed minor storming at that
time. Conditions should continue to remain stable at generally quiet to
unsettled levels, with a continuing risk for slightly disturbed periods
during the evening and early morning hours.
HF propagation conditions have been near normal over all regions today.
We should now begin to enter the quiet sector of the Sun which previously has
produced stable and normal to above normal HF propagation conditions. Recent
coronal imagery shows no coronal holes that are well placed. This should
help maintain stable and quiet conditions over the next 3 to 5 days. There
is only one possible disturbance which may arrive on 12 or 13 October. The
recent filament disappearance near the central meridian might have a slight
impact on geomagnetic activity and HF propagation conditions. At the present
time, we are not anticipating this disturbance to be very influential. There
is a good chance it will not have an impact at all. If so, the rest of this
week and the coming weekend should yield stable propagation conditions.
** End of Daily Update **