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91-10-03.DLY
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1991-10-03
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/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
03 OCTOBER, 1991
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 03 OCTOBER
-----------------------------------------------------
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 276, 10/03/91
10.7 FLUX=211.5 90-AVG=199 SSN=233 BKI=3544 3323 BAI=021
BGND-XRAY=C1.8 FLU1=7.7E+06 FLU10=5.6E+04 PKI=3434 3322 PAI=018
BOU-DEV=025,073,062,045,025,028,019,022 DEV-AVG=037 NT SWF=01:017
XRAY-MAX= M1.2 @ 0150UT XRAY-MIN= C1.0 @ 2133UT XRAY-AVG= C3.1
NEUTN-MAX= +001% @ 2300UT NEUTN-MIN= -004% @ 1425UT NEUTN-AVG= -1.0%
PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 2355UT PCA-MIN= -2.0DB @ 1105UT PCA-AVG= -0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55317NT @ 0335UT BOUTF-MIN=55276NT @ 1716UT BOUTF-AVG=55298NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+116NT@ 1737UT GOES7-MIN=N:-018NT@ 0844UT G7-AVG=+081,+060,+007
GOES6-MAX=P:+134NT@ 0912UT GOES6-MIN=E:-020NT@ 0628UT G6-AVG=+093,-001,+029
FLUXFCST=STD:212,215,210;SESC:210,210,210 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,016/015,025,030
KFCST=3344 5433 2224 4222 27DAY-AP=016,022 27DAY-KP=4333 3221 4324 4443
WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*PROTFLR;*PROTON;*PCA
ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.2@0150;**PROTNENH
!!END-DATA!!
BRIEF SUMMARY OF EVENTS
-----------------------
Solar activity was moderate today. Region 6853 (S20W25) produced a
class M1.2/1N flare at 01:50 UT. This was the only M-class flare of the day.
Region 6853 and its nearby companion, Region 6850 (S12W32) continue to
dominate the disk both optically and in flare output. There is some evidence
a minor amount of decay may have occurred in these groups, although they
still represent a formidable group capable of strong energetic activity.
Region 6850 is the biggest concern. It has several magnetic delta
configurations with strong magnetic fields and high gradients. There is also
some signs of increasing shear between the two regions as they continue to
interact.
Almost every component required to generate major solar flares is being
met in Regions 6853 and 6850. There is no reason these two regions should
not be able to spawn another major solar flare sometime over the next 72
hours. The potential for an M or X-class proton flare from one or both of
these groups is high enough that almost all major forecast centers have their
warning flags up. We anticipate something major to occur possibly within the
next 3 to 5 days. These regions will be in a potential high-risk zone for
another 48 hours. Thereafter, the risk for geomagnetic impacts will become
less, although the threat for potentially strong proton and PCA activity will
continue to rise until these regions approach the west limb.
Region 6861 (N09E20) grew quite substantially today and produced a class
C3/SF flare at 20:28 UT. This region is now nearing maturity.
Region 6855 (N18W06) also showed some growth today, but did not produce
any notable flare events.
An unexpected new region rotated into view today at S17E65. This region
has been numbered 6863.
The geomagnetic field continued to stabilize throughout the day and
became mostly unsettled by the end of the UT day. A coronal hole became
visible today (unfortunately, after the weekly STFR was released) which is
well placed for producing terrestrial impacts. It may begin increasing
geomagnetic activity after about 06 October to mostly active levels. There
will be a possibility for periods of minor storming, particularly over the
high latitude regions. Most of the activity should remain below, or perhaps
near, the minor storm threshold level over the middle latitudes.
HF propagation conditions improved noticably today. High and polar
latitudes were the only regions experiencing poor to fair propagation
conditions. All other regions observed near normal propagation conditions.
Noise levels remains slightly higher than normal, although signal levels and
signal stabilities were all higher today than they have been over the last 48
hours. Conditions should continue to improve over the next 24 to 48 hours.
By 06 October, some increased noise levels and signal fading may begin to be
observed in response to elevated geomagnetic and auroral activity levels
associated with the coronal hole. There is a moderate to high risk for a
potentially strong, long-duration short-wave fadeout (SWF) over the daylit
hemisphere associated with a possible major solar flare over the next 3 to 5
days.
** End of Daily Update **