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91-09-23.DLY
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1991-09-23
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/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
23 SEPTEMBER, 1991
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 23 SEPTEMBER
-------------------------------------------------------
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 266, 09/23/91
10.7 FLUX=184.9 90-AVG=203 SSN=172 BKI=1222 1022 BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=C1.1 FLU1=1.4E+05 FLU10=9.1E+03 PKI=1112 2221 PAI=005
BOU-DEV=008,014,011,012,005,004,011,013 DEV-AVG=009 NT SWF=01:002
XRAY-MAX= M1.0 @ 1800UT XRAY-MIN= C1.0 @ 2254UT XRAY-AVG= C1.7
NEUTN-MAX= +003% @ 2340UT NEUTN-MIN= -001% @ 2305UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.4%
PCA-MAX= +0.3DB @ 2215UT PCA-MIN= -3.9DB @ 1050UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55314NT @ 2205UT BOUTF-MIN=55276NT @ 1704UT BOUTF-AVG=55303NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+108NT@ 1833UT GOES7-MIN=N:-004NT@ 0114UT G7-AVG=+082,+039,+004
GOES6-MAX=P:+120NT@ 1913UT GOES6-MIN=E:-011NT@ 0905UT G6-AVG=+097,-002,+023
FLUXFCST=STD:191,190,186;SESC:188,190,185 BAI/PAI-FCST=007,012,018/011,018,027
KFCST=2233 3222 3333 3333 27DAY-AP=016,014 27DAY-KP=3322 3433 2233 3343
WARNINGS=
ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.0@1800
!!END-DATA!!
BRIEF SUMMARY OF EVENTS
-----------------------
Solar activity became moderate today with the eruption of a small
M-class flare from Region 6841 (S12W62). The event just barely made the
M-class category at 18:00 UT. Radio emissions were unimpressive.
Region 6832 (N08W68) remained stable today. No growth or decay was
noted. Occassional subflaring continued within this region.
An eruptive prominence on the southeast limb at 08:04 UT may be a
precursor to the appearance of old Region 6818, which is due to return
within the next 24 to 48 hours. Old Region 6818 was a proven X-class flare
producer on the last rotation and may still be capable of producing at least
moderate levels of activity. Models suggest the configuration of this region
has probably become less threatening, although the true nature of this region
is anyones guess. We won't be certain until it returns back into view.
The only other notable event which occurred today was the disappearance
of a solar filament located in the southeast quadrant. This filament was
fairly long (measured at 17 degrees). It is not expected to have a
terrestrial impact. The disappearance occurred sometime between 16:10 UT of
22 September and 08:04 UT of 23 September.
There is a slight risk for another minor M-class flare from Region 6841
over the next 24 to 48 hours. Most of the activity should continue to remain
within the C-class levels. A notable increase in x-ray activity has been
observed over the last 24 hours. The frequency of C-class flaring has
increased. This, together with a steadily increasing background x-ray flux,
may be a precursor to moderate levels of solar activity. This may become
particularly evident with the return of old Region 6818.
Geomagnetic activity has been quiet today. This trend of quiet periods
should have just about ended. Within the next 48 to 72 hours, we should
begin noticing the effects of a well placed coronal hole. Geomagnetic
activity should increase to mostly active levels by 26 or 27 September.
Periods of minor geomagnetic storming, particularly over the high latitude
regions, are a definite possibility after 26 September.
Auroral activity has been dormant. Activity should begin increasing
gradually after 25 or 26 September to mostly moderate levels over the high
latitude regions.
HF propagation conditions have been normal to above normal over the last
24 hours. Conditions will remain at least normal until 25 or 26 September
when an increased level of instability and minor amounts of signal
degradation (particularly during the local evening and early morning hours)
are anticipated in conjunction with the coronal disturbance. No significant
middle or low latitude path degradations are expected. Conditions over these
paths should remain near normal, although night-time signal instability
should increase after 26 September.
** End of Daily Update **