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91-09-22.DLY
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1991-09-23
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/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
22 SEPTEMBER, 1991
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 22 SEPTEMBER
-------------------------------------------------------
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 265, 09/22/91
10.7 FLUX=187.6 90-AVG=203 SSN=222 BKI=2211 2212 BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=B9.5 FLU1=2.1E+05 FLU10=8.4E+03 PKI=1112 3322 PAI=007
BOU-DEV=012,010,009,006,017,011,009,013 DEV-AVG=010 NT SWF=00:000
XRAY-MAX= C6.2 @ 1552UT XRAY-MIN= B9.2 @ 1019UT XRAY-AVG= C1.4
NEUTN-MAX= +003% @ 1420UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 2100UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.3%
PCA-MAX= +0.3DB @ 1210UT PCA-MIN= -0.6DB @ 1730UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55314NT @ 1013UT BOUTF-MIN=55277NT @ 1749UT BOUTF-AVG=55302NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+125NT@ 1649UT GOES7-MIN=N:-003NT@ 2357UT G7-AVG=+079,+043,+007
GOES6-MAX=P:+131NT@ 1945UT GOES6-MIN=E:-011NT@ 0638UT G6-AVG=+089,+000,+024
FLUXFCST=STD:190,197,195;SESC:190,195,190 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,012/012,015,022
KFCST=2333 3322 2333 3322 27DAY-AP=029,016 27DAY-KP=3343 2554 3322 3433
WARNINGS=
ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!
BRIEF SUMMARY OF EVENTS
-----------------------
Solar activity was low today. The largest x-ray event of the day was a
class C6.2/1N at 15:52 UT from Region 6841 (S13W48). Most of the activity is
attributed to increases in growth which have been observed over the last 24
hours within this region.
Region 6832 (N08W55) experienced a minor amount of decay while
contributing a couple of small subflares. No other significant events were
observed.
New Region 6847 (S23W58) was numbered today.
Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours.
Occassional C-class flaring is expected from Region 6841. Region 6832 may
still contribute a few subflares of its own.
There is an increasing probability for greater levels of flare activity
as an old major activity center begins to rotate back into view. Old Region
6818, which was responsible for several M-class flares as well as two strong
X-class events on the last rotation, is due to return over the next 48 to 72
hours. There is uncertainty regarding the development achieved with this
region as it traversed the far side of the Sun. It departed in a moderately
large optical EKI group with a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration capable of producing major energetic events. However, it was
relatively stable as it departed. If this region has maintained its complex
characteristics, it should be a source for occassional M-class events. If it
has decayed, it may only be capable of isolated C-class flares. The
probability for M-class flares over the next 3 days is: 25%, 40%, 50%. These
probabilities are entirely dependent on the configuration of Region 6818.
The geomagnetic field remained mostly quiet to unsettled today. This
trend should continue over the next 48 hours. By 25 September, activity may
begin increasing to mostly unsettled or active levels. A well placed coronal
hole should begin enhancing geomagnetic activity anytime after 25 September.
Auroral activity has been dormant and will remain dormant until the
effects from the well placed coronal hole begin enhancing activity. Levels
should increase from dormant levels to moderate levels over the high latitude
regions by Thursday (UT time). Middle latitudes probably will not witness
particularly notable increases in auroral activity until 26 or 27 September.
We are nearing the end of the stable HF propagation conditions which
have been observed over the last week or so. By 25 or 26 September,
conditions may become increasingly degraded over the high and polar latitude
regions as geomagnetic and auroral activity increase. No significant
degradations in middle or low latitude signal paths are anticipated with this
disturbance, although high and polar latitude signals should experience
notable increases in fading and flutter after 26 September.
** End of Daily Update **