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1993-05-31
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The New Marketplace:
by Robert C. Brenner
While analysts, editors, and industry pundits debate the affect of
the new political "leadership," I maintain that it really doesn't
matter who is in the White House. A process is underway that cannot
be stopped. It can only be helped or hindered by the party in power.
This paradigm shift is causing a major restructuring of the American
workplace. The phenomenon is so widespread and so pervasive that the
way we organize to do business is changing forever. Alvin Toffler
describes it as a shift in power from wealth to information. Other
business analysts and futurists describe what we're experiencing as
the greatest change in business structure in history. The current
paradigm - the accepted way that we organize and conduct business -
is being radically modified. Corporate America is restructuring
itself to organize around technology. A hundred years ago, half of
all American workers were engaged in agriculture. Since 1950, low
skilled labor jobs began getting squeezed out of manufacturing.
Starting in 1980, high skilled jobs began to disappear as computers
and automation entered the workplace. Now, just since 1990, 70% of
the manufacturing jobs eliminated in plant closings and layoffs have
been white collar positions. Most of these jobs are gone forever. The
change is being driven by the assimilation of microelectronic
technology. The computer revolution began as the 70s rolled into the
80s. The introduction of the IBM PC in 1981 Marketplace continued on
Pg 4 legitimized the acceptance of desktop personal computers in the
offices of business America. Experts on the introduction of new
technology point out that it takes a generation (20-30 years) for
society to assimilate a major technological change and businesses to
organize around the technology. The television was invented in the
late 1940s, but it took until 1960 for TV to become commonplace. A
nation cannot retool overnight. It will take until the end of this
century for our society to fully assimilate desktop computing and the
myriad of electronic products that interface and enhance the use of
these machines. In parts of the U.S., many businesses still don't
know how to employ computers to gain a competitive advantage. For
the first half of most transitions to new technology, the general
standard of living falls - it has.
Smokestack Economy Crumbling In the past, the process to assimilate
technology was accompanied by massive changes in the workplace
today's paradigm shift is producing the same results. We're seeing
corporate reorganizations, restructuring, and layoffs on a massive
scale. Our smokestack economy is disintegrating as the pyramid
organization structure, CEO at the top and workers at the bottom,
begins to implode in upon itself. In trade publications, in almost
every industry, you can read about corporate redesign and massive
worker displacement. The Wall Street Journal has reported
fundamental changes in the U.S. job market. Our economy is rapidly
becoming high-tech. As a result, jobs aren't being temporarily lost
because of the recession. They are being permanently wiped out by
better computers, improved machinery, and new ways of organizing
work. This is shifting many educated people into unchallenging jobs
or completely out of the workplace. Add to this an uneducated
underclass incapable of handling almost any high-tech job, and we
find our country in an agonizing metamorphosis. Complete layers of
management are being eliminated. Organization structures are
flattening horizontally. We have not "bottomed" out in the
elimination of the old "smokestack" types of jobs. This won't occur
for several more years. But losing 'labor-intensive' jobs while
gaining 'high-tech' jobs is producing a net loss of employment in
the very industries that typically provide jobs for segments of our
population not educationally suited for higher-tech work. Management
and skilled jobs in the smokestack sector will continue to disappear
no matter who runs our country. But new jobs are replacing the old.
These new high value jobs are being created as fast as electronic
technology becomes a part of our working life. With change comes a
new workplace based on an electronic infrastructure and with workers
who are no longer tied to a desk in a common location. The
conventional job description and the department organization chart
are disappearing as companies begin to reorganize. These new
organizations will be able to instantly restructure according to the
job. As information races throughout our world, value is being added
to what we know (or can find out). Business power is shifting to
those who can collect, maintain, and use information.
Change:
The Economic Battlefield
This has presented the desktop publisher with an opportunity for
profit that has never existed for the typical graphics designer and
printer. Our world is entering an information war on an economic
battlefield, and the DTPer has a commanding lead for top profits in
the near future. Small businesses have traditionally operated lean
and fast. The horizontal organization structure and rapid response
capability enable our profession to succeed beyond our wildest
imaginations. We accept and welcome change. Change is part of our
professional lives. However, it is resisted in the bureaucracies of
large companies and the government. Change is traumatic for workers
in large companies. Thousands of experienced white collar workers
are suddenly finding themselves "out of work" at 45 years old - too
young to "retire" and too old to get rehired in the same type of
work. Middle income jobs are being permanently eliminated by a need
to organize around knowledge and the technology needed to move
information. A recent article in Electronic Engineering Times
reports that "three million managers have lost jobs since the mid
1980s, and another 2.5 million will lose theirs by 1995 as companies
downsize and flatten the pyramidal structure." As old job positions
go away, new jobs in information technology are being born and the
appearance of these types of jobs will accelerate as the decade
closes. By 2010, there will be a huge need for information workers.
Politicians Continue To Blow Smoke
Retraining America is on the agenda of politicians and corporate
leaders. The problem is that Washington is still focused on
addressing production line smokestack industry solutions. They want
to create jobs for low skilled workers. They don't explain that
these jobs are rapidly moving off-shore or to Mexico. The proper
solution is to help workers learn how to collect, move, and use
information. Brain-power is becoming the highest form of economic
advantage. Another problem, and one not addressed by our recent
presidential candidates, is the fact that many of the blue collar
workers who have seen their jobs disappear are not easily
retrainable to handle technical work. A recent study discovered that
almost 40% of displaced blue collar workers are functionally
illiterate. Another 40% are marginally illiterate. While Washington
and many corporate managers continue to think in terms of moving men
and materials, a smokestack mentality, the real product of our
future is information. Our schools still haven't grasped the concept
that education must be changed. President Clinton boasts that he
will create millions of jobs. The problem with this concept is that
he will create jobs paying minimum wage. The lower income level of
society will grow to bursting. Only 730,000 out of the projected
6.5 million new jobs that are expected between now and the end of
the decade will be middle income jobs (paying over $25,500 a year).
The higher paying jobs will be those closely associated with the
Information Revolution. And few businesses are better positioned to
optimize profits in this new economy than the desktop publishers and
multimedia designers of today. Unemployment is moving from
quantitative to qualitative. There will be plenty of work and money
to be earned for those who possess the skills to handle information.
Our Transition
Into The Future
Customers are asking for more than just output products; they also
want answers. It is this information that can add value to your
products and services. You must be prepared to charge for this
information. From today on, it is knowledge, rather than cheap
labor, that will embody and add value. When you describe the
benefits of your services, be certain to point out the time that can
be saved by the knowledge and experience that your shop can offer.
Many customers don't yet understand the value of information. They
soon will. Information is becoming a value-added commodity. The rate
of technological change has become white hot and business success
will depend more on electronic highways than ever in history. The
way you organize your shop - equipment layout, hardware and
software used, telecommunication capabilities available, etc. - will
directly determine your bottom line. You must be able to rapidly
shift work flow patterns and be sensitive to customers who expect
hand-holding and fast turnaround. You can help our nation transition
into its inevitable future. Emphasize the critical value of human
resources and conduct worker cross-training. Support work-at-home,
flexitime, and job sharing. Form strategic alliances and organize
your shop around the technology that is available. In this way, you
can increase productivity and meet the ever changing demands of a
fickle customer base. We need vision in our profession. A lack of
vision in the leadership of corporate America means that many large
companies will no longer be around by the end of this decade. As
reported by Shearson Lehman Brothers recently: "There's a long-term,
secular change sweeping the industry, and some com-panies aren't
going to make it." You can. The restructuring of American business
does not remove the need for good document design and publishing. As
companies shrink their graphics staffs, offer to support an
outsourcing arrangement. Consider hiring the displaced graphics
designers and DTPers as you go after projects that continue to be
created inside these new organizations. Become expert in explaining
the advantages of outsourcing DTP work. Learn about and use
telecommunications - modem and fax. Have freelancers work from home
within or outside your city. Modem transfer has become accurate,
fast, and convenient. Be open to telecommuting. Only by taking a
leadership position and developing vision can you help your shop
and our nation through this economic and social upheaval. You can
win. We can all win.
U.S. To Play
A Dominant Role.
The U.S. will soon become one of the most competitive nations in a
world in which information plays a dominant role. Our world is
rapidly becoming a global village with global customs and porous
borders. The rich flow of information is producing a world of many
unequal groups that are rapidly becoming aware of each other. While
everyone seeks economic well-being and a secure lifestyle,
information technology and the desktop publisher possess the keys to
success in the world of tomorrow. The pursuit of wealth is shifting
to a pursuit of information. The application of information will
determine who are the millionaires of tomorrow. Your company can be
like a weed in an open field. With the sun and water of information
management, you can experience amazing growth. In the 1980s, small
businesses operating on their own created most of the jobs. It will
also be small businesses that create most of the new jobs in the 90s.
Information is changing the relationships of management to worker,
citizen to government, and even the balance of power in our
shrinking world. Alliances, partnerships, and joint development will
reshape the way we do business. As we enter the 21st century, you
can position yourself and your company to lead the profession in the
application of information. Power is shifting, and those who possess
the know-how in collecting, processing, and distributing information
will be the decision makers of tomorrow. Organize around the
technology and you'll win. Remain stagnant, and you'll soon be
pushed off the path to success.
Robert Brenner is President of Brenner Information Group, an
information collection, packaging and distribution company located
in San Diego. He is the author and Publisher of Modems Made Easy and
Pricing Guide for Desktop Publishing Services. His many activities
include computer systems integration and teaching project
management and desktop publishing at local colleges and universities.
Professor Brenner can be contacted by writing to him at 13223 Black
Mountain 1-430, San Diego, CA 92129, or by calling him at
(619)538-0093.