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1994-02-02
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43 lines
SB PROP @ ARRL $ARLP002
ARLP002 Propagation DE KT7H
QST DE W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2 ARLP002
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA January 14, 1994
To All Radio Amateurs
Solar activity was down a bit last week, after the significant rise
in flux the week before. Average flux was down over 24 points, and
it finally dropped below 100 on January 12. A and K indices dropped
also, which signified quiet geomagnetic conditions and good
propagation on 80 and 160 meters. The A index was single digits on
most days, and even reached zero on January 9 and 10.
By the time this bulletin was written, geomagnetic conditions were
active again, but are expected to quiet down, and then become active
once more around January 25. Solar flux is also expected to rise
again, peaking near 130 around January 26, and then dipping below
100 again after February 5.
Sunspot Numbers from January 6 through 12 were 144, 135, 119, 98,
74, 56 and 66, with a mean of 98.9. 10.7 cm flux was 132.1, 126.3,
122.9, 117, 110.1, 101.1 and 97.8, with a mean of 115.3
The path projection for this week is from Tulsa, Oklahoma to West
Malaysia.
80 and 75 meters should be open from 1130z to 1400z, peaking around
1230z to 1300z. 40 meters looks good from 1100z to 1400z, and 30
meters from 1400z to 1530z and again around 2330z. 20 meters should
be open from 1530z to 2000z, with the best conditions early in the
opening, and again around 2300z to 0000z. 17 meters looks good from
1630z to 1830z, and 15 meters around 1730z. On some days 12 meters
may be open around 1700z to 1830z, and there is a slight chance of
an opening on 10 meters around 1800z to 1830z. Tulsa's sunset is
the same time as West Malaysia's sunrise at this time of year, and
there is a chance of openings around that time (2330z) on 15 through
30 meters. The odds are better on the low end of that range of
frequencies.
/EX