SB PROP @ ARRL $ARLP002 ARLP002 Propagation DE KT7H QST DE W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2 ARLP002 From Tad Cook, KT7H Seattle, WA January 14, 1994 To All Radio Amateurs Solar activity was down a bit last week, after the significant rise in flux the week before. Average flux was down over 24 points, and it finally dropped below 100 on January 12. A and K indices dropped also, which signified quiet geomagnetic conditions and good propagation on 80 and 160 meters. The A index was single digits on most days, and even reached zero on January 9 and 10. By the time this bulletin was written, geomagnetic conditions were active again, but are expected to quiet down, and then become active once more around January 25. Solar flux is also expected to rise again, peaking near 130 around January 26, and then dipping below 100 again after February 5. Sunspot Numbers from January 6 through 12 were 144, 135, 119, 98, 74, 56 and 66, with a mean of 98.9. 10.7 cm flux was 132.1, 126.3, 122.9, 117, 110.1, 101.1 and 97.8, with a mean of 115.3 The path projection for this week is from Tulsa, Oklahoma to West Malaysia. 80 and 75 meters should be open from 1130z to 1400z, peaking around 1230z to 1300z. 40 meters looks good from 1100z to 1400z, and 30 meters from 1400z to 1530z and again around 2330z. 20 meters should be open from 1530z to 2000z, with the best conditions early in the opening, and again around 2300z to 0000z. 17 meters looks good from 1630z to 1830z, and 15 meters around 1730z. On some days 12 meters may be open around 1700z to 1830z, and there is a slight chance of an opening on 10 meters around 1800z to 1830z. Tulsa's sunset is the same time as West Malaysia's sunrise at this time of year, and there is a chance of openings around that time (2330z) on 15 through 30 meters. The odds are better on the low end of that range of frequencies. /EX