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- THE WEEK, Page 16WORLDYou Fly, You Die
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- A plan to protect Shi`ites could put a squeeze on Iraq's Saddam
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- They will not -- probably cannot -- do it for Slavic Muslims
- in Bosnia. But the U.S. and its European allies are prepared to
- give air protection to Shi`ite Muslims in Iraq. The U.S., France
- and Britain, having mobilized a force of 200 aircraft and 19
- navy ships, have agreed to declare a "no-fly zone" across the
- southern third of the country. The force is to fly
- reconnaissance missions over a marshy region where Western
- officials say Saddam Hussein pursues a policy of genocide
- against opponents of his regime. The goal will be to close the
- sky to Iraqi flights. "We're going to monitor and watch what
- he's doing there," said U.S. National Security Adviser Brent
- Scowcroft, and that means "he has to stop flying."
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- The allied action was prompted by evidence that 70 Iraqi
- combat aircraft were being used to attack Shi`ite villages and
- rebel camps in the swamps and islands in the Basra region, where
- the Tigris and Euphrates rivers empty into the gulf. That
- violates a U.N. resolution, passed after the Gulf War,
- prohibiting Saddam's "repression" of his own people. A similar
- protection zone has been in effect in northern Kurdish regions
- since April 1991.
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- Military experts warn that limited reconnaissance missions
- can lead to air and ground combat. "The air force will argue
- that to remove the risk of losses, they would like to take out
- some if not all of the Iraqi air defenses again," says Colonel
- Andrew Duncan of the International Institute for Strategic
- Studies in London. "Then you're on the slippery slope to
- escalation." But the allies may have concluded that their best
- tactic is to squeeze Saddam between rebellious Kurds to the
- north and hostile Shi`ites to the south.
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