Time - Man of the Year/Time_Man_of_the_Year_Compact_Publishing_3YX-Disc-1_Compact_Publishing_1993.iso/moy/021792/0217107.000

Text File | 1992-08-28 | 5KB | 109 lines

                                                                                NATION, Page 24

THE POLITICAL INTEREST

The Vulture Watch, Chapter 2


By Michael Kramer


    And now there is a new question: "What did you do in the
war, Bill Clinton?" Just when the Arkansas Governor believed he
had weathered Gennifer Flowers' unsubstantiated allegations of
a 12-year affair between the two, Clinton was rocked by old
charges that he dodged the draft during the height of the
Vietnam War. The facts are convoluted and hotly contested, and
the credibility of Clinton's accusers is in dispute. One, a
retired Army colonel, has for over a decade been telling a
diametrically opposite tale that exonerates Clinton. The other,
a former official of Clinton's draft board and a Republican,
recalls conversations with Clinton that the Governor says never
took place.

    Meanwhile, Clinton's own recollection today is different
than it was less than a month ago, and the truly salient point
is even more troubling. Clinton insists that the death of four
of his friends in Vietnam caused him to question his own
avoidance of the conflict he detested. "So I voluntarily
submitted myself to the draft," says Clinton. That was in the
fall of 1969, when the draft lottery was about to go into effect
-- a mechanism that shortly had Clinton drawing No. 311, meaning
there was virtually no chance that he would be called. Yet if
Clinton had really felt guilty about not serving, an easy remedy
was available: he could have enlisted.

    The political fallout has been swift and stunning. Two of
Clinton's competitors, Tom Harkin and Bob Kerrey, who gingerly
avoided all but the mildest comments on the subject of Clinton's
troubled marriage and Flowers' charges, have come out swinging.
Both "wonder" if Clinton is telling the truth, and with the
Feb. 18 New Hampshire primary only a week away, they are
pressing the issue forcefully. They are lagging badly in the
polls, and attacking Clinton offers their only hope for an
upset. The last candidate debate, on Feb. 16, will probably
provide the most intense mudslinging in years.

    Clinton's overarching problem is "how much crap can he
take," says the Governor's New Hampshire campaign director,
Mitchell Schwartz. This is especially so in the South, Clinton's
area of greatest strength, where draft dodging is a major
no-no. In a long political campaign, Schwartz concedes,
credibility questions tarnish a candidate geometrically. "It's
not just Flowers and the draft -- one and one equaling two,"
says Schwartz. It's the potential for a snowball effect that
causes voters to consider alternative contenders without even
bothering to come to grips with their doubts about Clinton.
Death by a thousand cuts.

    "If I were at 3% in the polls, none of this stuff would be
given any currency," Clinton confided last Thursday. "The focus
is always on the front runner." Clinton is right, of course. If
Harkin were ahead of the field, his war record would be
reviled. In the past, Harkin claimed he flew combat missions in
Vietnam; in fact, he merely ferried fighters to the war zone.
If Kerrey had the edge, the child-labor-law violations at the
restaurant chain he founded would lead the campaign coverage.
"This is the big leagues," says Paul Tsongas, whose own
big-bucks lobbying for businesses is now getting a working over
in the press. It's "the nature of the beast."

    If Clinton falls in New Hampshire, the vulture watch will
be in full cry. Advisers to Lloyd Bentsen, Al Gore and Richard
Gephardt admit they are considering a late entry, but all eyes
are on Mario Cuomo. The New York Governor has refused to call
off a New Hampshire write-in campaign. Ads in the state's
papers and mass mailings to Democrats are explaining how they
can write in a vote for a "proven leader" in a field of "second
choices." Cuomo's national supporters are steering funds to the
New Hampshire effort, so TV spots are just around the corner.

    The model for a post-New Hampshire campaign is Robert
Kennedy's 1968 race. After Eugene McCarthy wounded Lyndon
Johnson by almost beating the President in New Hampshire,
Kennedy in effect thanked McCarthy for doing the dirty work and
announced that it was time for a heavyweight to finish the job.
In theory, Cuomo (or someone else) would say the same to Tsongas
if he beats Clinton. The early filing deadlines and the
front-loaded primary process complicate matters (by late March
approximately 50% of the delegates to the Democratic Convention
will have been chosen), but where there's a will, there's a way.

    Enter the "mandate scenario," which may be the only option
open to a late starter. To go this route, a candidate would
contest several primaries in different regions to prove his
vote-getting ability. Most frequently mentioned are California
(with a March 19 filing deadline), and Alabama, Minnesota and
New Jersey, which have April drop-dead dates. Since securing the
nomination this late would be mathematically impossible, the
mandate scenario counts on the trailing candidates to cave in
to the heavyweight for the good of the party under pressure from
Democratic leaders, financial big shots and the media. Goofy,
perhaps, but possible and even probable if Clinton stumbles in
New Hampshire. The Democrats, you see, think they can win this
time.