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From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest)
To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
Subject: canslim-digest V2 #3331
Reply-To: canslim
Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
Precedence: bulk
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
X-No-Archive: yes
canslim-digest Saturday, May 24 2003 Volume 02 : Number 3331
In this issue:
Re: [CANSLIM] Reasonable Goal?
Re: [CANSLIM] Reasonable Goal?
Re: [CANSLIM] Reasonable Goal?
RE: APPX (was: [CANSLIM] ADVP)
RE: [CANSLIM] usna, stcr
Re: [CANSLIM] Reasonable Goal?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Sat, 24 May 2003 11:11:29 -0700
From: Ian <ianstm@shaw.ca>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Reasonable Goal?
Hi Tomas:
I'll be the exception here and say that I believe that 40% a year is a
reasonable goal (particularly up until you have about $600,000 - IMHO,
outsized returns are a lot easier with smaller amounts of money) if you are
extremely disciplined about:
* cutting losses very early
* REALLY letting your winners run
* committed to buying strong breakouts during confirmed rallies (You don't
have to believe in a 'secular bull' to do this - but you do need to
understand that most of these rallies are good for about 2 months and 30%
runs in the indices).
NONE of these 3 things are remotely easy. They all seem to fly in the face
of basic human nature. But they are all absolutely essential to achieve
outsized gains.
My personal goals are to double every two years (about 42% per year), and I
have been achieving it. As an example, my virtual fund was started 2 years
ago this weekend, and is up about 118% to date:
http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/wa/FundPublicPa
ge?source=DoPiAlBbDlAmIgAmMaKiAbBi (and this was during an ugly market, and
with an average of 30% cash, and no shorting allowed, and using strict SEC
mutual fund asset allocation rules)
As a Canadian, the hardest part about trying to compound the gains is
taxes - I'm not sure how difficult that is in the US.
Consider all the strong post-March 12 breakouts that are up 80-200%. If you
slowly went to fully invested as these breakouts happened, you would easily
be up 40% in the last 2 1/2 months.
IMHO, with an unintentional focus on microcaps and nanocaps, I think that
somewhere in the neighbourhood of $2,000,000 - $4,000,000 is where these
kind of gains become more difficult. Therefore, for the professional money
manager, who must look after 10's of millions just to earn a living from
fees, it really is unreasonable to expect 40%+ annual gains. But for the
individual investor with a much smaller amount of $$$, I believe their
'money making universe' is an order of magnitude larger in terms of
available equities, so they have a reasonable chance at these kind of gains.
Consider SSYS and HITK, which have been 2 of the best stocks during the last
2 months. Both of them were trading under 100,000 shares a day when the
rally started (SSYS had a 13,000 share day in early march, with the average
probably under 50,000). As a professional manager with $100,000,000, you
probably couldn't or wouldn't buy enough of either of these to make a huge
impact on you fund. But as an individual, if you buy 6-10 positions for
yourself, these two stocks alone could have netted you 20-30%.
Cheers,
Ian
Marketocracy has 100+ funds that were up 30% in the last 30 days alone:
http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/wa/RankingViewP
age?date=20030516&subject=30Days%20Rankings%2081%20%2D%20100
IMHO, that is only possible because of the small position sizes.
- ----- Original Message -----
From: Tomas <tomas986@yahoo.com>
To: canslim canslim <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Friday, May 23, 2003 12:57 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Reasonable Goal?
> This question is for the senior CS'ers. If an
> investor is 29 years old right now, and his goal is to
> make $2M by 40 to retire, is this a reasonable goal?
> The assumption is that he will start with $10K and add
> between $5-$10K capital every year.
>
> I understand that there are many factors like
> - how discipline you are
> - how diligence you are
> - how persistent you are
> - how you learn from your mistake and
> do post analysis of your trades
> - and even how lucky you are.
>
> But assumption that the investor is decently good on
> those factors. What is your opinion?
>
> Thanks,
> tomas
>
>
> __________________________________
> Do you Yahoo!?
> The New Yahoo! Search - Faster. Easier. Bingo.
> http://search.yahoo.com
>
> -
> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 24 May 2003 11:39:32 -0700
From: Ian <ianstm@shaw.ca>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Reasonable Goal?
Tomas:
By my calculations, if you added the maximum $10,000 every year, and made
40% per year, and PAID NO TAXES, at the end of 12 years you would have
$1,959,000. At the midpoint, after 6 years, you would have $238,000.
In Canada, we have a tax-sheltered retirement account that could be used to
do this. But you would have to wait an extra 2 1/2 years (total of 14 1/2)
in order to double it again, so that it could be withdrawn at a 50% tax
rate. That would be a way the optimal way to deal with the taxes - shelter
them as they compound, and pay them at the end, or slowly as the money is
withdrawn.
Ian
- ----- Original Message -----
From: Tomas <tomas986@yahoo.com>
To: canslim canslim <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Friday, May 23, 2003 12:57 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Reasonable Goal?
> This question is for the senior CS'ers. If an
> investor is 29 years old right now, and his goal is to
> make $2M by 40 to retire, is this a reasonable goal?
> The assumption is that he will start with $10K and add
> between $5-$10K capital every year.
>
> I understand that there are many factors like
> - how discipline you are
> - how diligence you are
> - how persistent you are
> - how you learn from your mistake and
> do post analysis of your trades
> - and even how lucky you are.
>
> But assumption that the investor is decently good on
> those factors. What is your opinion?
>
> Thanks,
> tomas
>
>
> __________________________________
> Do you Yahoo!?
> The New Yahoo! Search - Faster. Easier. Bingo.
> http://search.yahoo.com
>
> -
> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 24 May 2003 13:13:11 -0500
From: "Gene Ricci" <genr@swbell.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Reasonable Goal?
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
- ------=_NextPart_000_04B5_01C321F6.39DB7160
Content-Type: text/plain;
charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi Ian, and how much time would be required on a daily basis?
a. beginning investor
b. intermediate investor
c. trained investor
d. expert investor
Thanks,
Gene
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Ian=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Saturday, May 24, 2003 1:11 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Reasonable Goal?
Hi Tomas:
I'll be the exception here and say that I believe that 40% a year is a
reasonable goal (particularly up until you have about $600,000 - IMHO,
outsized returns are a lot easier with smaller amounts of money) if =
you are
extremely disciplined about:
* cutting losses very early
* REALLY letting your winners run
* committed to buying strong breakouts during confirmed rallies (You =
don't
have to believe in a 'secular bull' to do this - but you do need to
understand that most of these rallies are good for about 2 months and =
30%
runs in the indices).
NONE of these 3 things are remotely easy. They all seem to fly in the =
face
of basic human nature. But they are all absolutely essential to =
achieve
outsized gains.
My personal goals are to double every two years (about 42% per year), =
and I
have been achieving it. As an example, my virtual fund was started 2 =
years
ago this weekend, and is up about 118% to date:
=
http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/wa/FundPubli=
cPa
ge?source=3DDoPiAlBbDlAmIgAmMaKiAbBi (and this was during an ugly =
market, and
with an average of 30% cash, and no shorting allowed, and using strict =
SEC
mutual fund asset allocation rules)
As a Canadian, the hardest part about trying to compound the gains is
taxes - I'm not sure how difficult that is in the US.
Consider all the strong post-March 12 breakouts that are up 80-200%. =
If you
slowly went to fully invested as these breakouts happened, you would =
easily
be up 40% in the last 2 1/2 months.
IMHO, with an unintentional focus on microcaps and nanocaps, I think =
that
somewhere in the neighbourhood of $2,000,000 - $4,000,000 is where =
these
kind of gains become more difficult. Therefore, for the professional =
money
manager, who must look after 10's of millions just to earn a living =
from
fees, it really is unreasonable to expect 40%+ annual gains. But for =
the
individual investor with a much smaller amount of $$$, I believe their
'money making universe' is an order of magnitude larger in terms of
available equities, so they have a reasonable chance at these kind of =
gains.
Consider SSYS and HITK, which have been 2 of the best stocks during =
the last
2 months. Both of them were trading under 100,000 shares a day when =
the
rally started (SSYS had a 13,000 share day in early march, with the =
average
probably under 50,000). As a professional manager with $100,000,000, =
you
probably couldn't or wouldn't buy enough of either of these to make a =
huge
impact on you fund. But as an individual, if you buy 6-10 positions =
for
yourself, these two stocks alone could have netted you 20-30%.
Cheers,
Ian
Marketocracy has 100+ funds that were up 30% in the last 30 days =
alone:
=
http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/wa/RankingVi=
ewP
age?date=3D20030516&subject=3D30Days%20Rankings%2081%20%2D%20100
IMHO, that is only possible because of the small position sizes.
----- Original Message -----
From: Tomas <tomas986@yahoo.com>
To: canslim canslim <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Friday, May 23, 2003 12:57 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Reasonable Goal?
> This question is for the senior CS'ers. If an
> investor is 29 years old right now, and his goal is to
> make $2M by 40 to retire, is this a reasonable goal?
> The assumption is that he will start with $10K and add
> between $5-$10K capital every year.
>
> I understand that there are many factors like
> - how discipline you are
> - how diligence you are
> - how persistent you are
> - how you learn from your mistake and
> do post analysis of your trades
> - and even how lucky you are.
>
> But assumption that the investor is decently good on
> those factors. What is your opinion?
>
> Thanks,
> tomas
>
>
> __________________________________
> Do you Yahoo!?
> The New Yahoo! Search - Faster. Easier. Bingo.
> http://search.yahoo.com
>
> -
> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
-
-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
- ------=_NextPart_000_04B5_01C321F6.39DB7160
Content-Type: text/html;
charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; =
charset=3Diso-8859-1">
<META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2726.2500" name=3DGENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Hi Ian, and how much time would be =
required on a=20
daily basis?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">a. beginning investor</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">b. intermediate investor</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">c. trained investor</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">d. expert investor</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Thanks,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Gene</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dianstm@shaw.ca href=3D"mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">Ian</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, May 24, 2003 =
1:11=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
Reasonable=20
Goal?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>Hi Tomas:<BR><BR>I'll be the exception here and say =
that I=20
believe that 40% a year is a<BR>reasonable goal (particularly up until =
you=20
have about $600,000 - IMHO,<BR>outsized returns are a lot easier with =
smaller=20
amounts of money) if you are<BR>extremely disciplined about:<BR>* =
cutting=20
losses very early<BR>* REALLY letting your winners run<BR>* committed =
to=20
buying strong breakouts during confirmed rallies (You don't<BR>have to =
believe=20
in a 'secular bull' to do this - but you do need to<BR>understand that =
most of=20
these rallies are good for about 2 months and 30%<BR>runs in the=20
indices).<BR><BR>NONE of these 3 things are remotely easy. They all =
seem to=20
fly in the face<BR>of basic human nature. But they are all absolutely=20
essential to achieve<BR>outsized gains.<BR><BR><BR>My personal goals =
are to=20
double every two years (about 42% per year), and I<BR>have been =
achieving it.=20
As an example, my virtual fund was started 2 years<BR>ago this =
weekend, and is=20
up about 118% to date:<BR><A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/wa/F=
undPublicPa">http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa=
/wa/FundPublicPa</A><BR>ge?source=3DDoPiAlBbDlAmIgAmMaKiAbBi=20
(and this was during an ugly market, and<BR>with an average of 30% =
cash, and=20
no shorting allowed, and using strict SEC<BR>mutual fund asset =
allocation=20
rules)<BR><BR>As a Canadian, the hardest part about trying to compound =
the=20
gains is<BR>taxes - I'm not sure how difficult that is in the=20
US.<BR><BR>Consider all the strong post-March 12 breakouts that are up =
80-200%. If you<BR>slowly went to fully invested as these breakouts =
happened,=20
you would easily<BR>be up 40% in the last 2 1/2 months.<BR><BR>IMHO, =
with an=20
unintentional focus on microcaps and nanocaps, I think =
that<BR>somewhere in=20
the neighbourhood of $2,000,000 - $4,000,000 is where these<BR>kind of =
gains=20
become more difficult. Therefore, for the professional =
money<BR>manager, who=20
must look after 10's of millions just to earn a living from<BR>fees, =
it really=20
is unreasonable to expect 40%+ annual gains. But for the<BR>individual =
investor with a much smaller amount of $$$, I believe their<BR>'money =
making=20
universe' is an order of magnitude larger in terms of<BR>available =
equities,=20
so they have a reasonable chance at these kind of =
gains.<BR><BR>Consider SSYS=20
and HITK, which have been 2 of the best stocks during the last<BR>2 =
months.=20
Both of them were trading under 100,000 shares a day when the<BR>rally =
started=20
(SSYS had a 13,000 share day in early march, with the =
average<BR>probably=20
under 50,000). As a professional manager with $100,000,000, =
you<BR>probably=20
couldn't or wouldn't buy enough of either of these to make a =
huge<BR>impact on=20
you fund. But as an individual, if you buy 6-10 positions =
for<BR>yourself,=20
these two stocks alone could have netted you=20
20-30%.<BR><BR><BR>Cheers,<BR><BR>Ian<BR><BR><BR>Marketocracy has 100+ =
funds=20
that were up 30% in the last 30 days alone:<BR><A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/wa/R=
ankingViewP">http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa=
/wa/RankingViewP</A><BR>age?date=3D20030516&subject=3D30Days%20Rankin=
gs%2081%20%2D%20100<BR>IMHO,=20
that is only possible because of the small position=20
sizes.<BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR>----- Original Message=20
-----<BR>From: Tomas <<A=20
href=3D"mailto:tomas986@yahoo.com">tomas986@yahoo.com</A>><BR>To: =
canslim=20
canslim <<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
><BR>Sent:=20
Friday, May 23, 2003 12:57 PM<BR>Subject: [CANSLIM] Reasonable=20
Goal?<BR><BR><BR>> This question is for the senior CS'ers. If =
an<BR>> investor is 29 years old right now, and his goal is =
to<BR>> make=20
$2M by 40 to retire, is this a reasonable goal?<BR>> The assumption =
is that=20
he will start with $10K and add<BR>> between $5-$10K capital every=20
year.<BR>><BR>> I understand that there are many factors =
like<BR>> -=20
how discipline you are<BR>> - how diligence you are<BR>> - how=20
persistent you are<BR>> - how you learn from your mistake=20
and<BR>> do post analysis of your trades<BR>> - and =
even how=20
lucky you are.<BR>><BR>> But assumption that the investor is =
decently=20
good on<BR>> those factors. What is your =
opinion?<BR>><BR>>=20
Thanks,<BR>> tomas<BR>><BR>><BR>>=20
__________________________________<BR>> Do you Yahoo!?<BR>> The =
New=20
Yahoo! Search - Faster. Easier. Bingo.<BR>> <A=20
=
href=3D"http://search.yahoo.com">http://search.yahoo.com</A><BR>><BR>&=
gt;=20
-<BR>> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>>=
; -In=20
the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>> -"unsubscribe=20
canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.<BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To=20
subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In=
the=20
email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe =
canslim". Do=20
not use quotes in your email.<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
- ------=_NextPart_000_04B5_01C321F6.39DB7160--
- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 24 May 2003 16:36:35 -0500
From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: RE: APPX (was: [CANSLIM] ADVP)
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
- ------=_NextPart_000_001B_01C32212.A3ED27D0
Content-Type: text/plain;
charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
Hi Roger,
APPX is another one of those cases where you have a better perspective on
the action since the breakout by using a weekly chart:
http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/APPXWkly052303.JPG
It's hard not to have a situation where price declines a bit since the
breakout, because that day, the volume was 150%+ of average. Subsequent days
can still be on respectable volume, but viewed in contrast to the big
breakout day, might give the impression of wedging action. In that case, you
want to ask whether the action, in general, is doing what you'd expect. Are
up days on high volume and down days on low volume? Is there a significant
decrease in volume on up days in comparison to the beginning of the run or
is it still respectibly high? Is the price churning (very little upward
price movement on high volume)? Etc.
http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/APPX052303.JPG
That doesn't mean APPX won't flash warning signs in the near future, but
right now it looks pretty healthy. That also shouldn't affect your profit
taking plan in any way. If you've chosen to follow the 20%-take-it-and-run
rule, then you should absolutely stick to your plan.
Katherine
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]
> Sent: Saturday, May 24, 2003 10:58 AM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] ADVP
>
> Thanks again Katherine.
>
> In the case of APPX, I stock which I purchased at 26.99$ as it broke out
> on 05-14, and which I still hold, I have been looking for any signs of
> whether I should get out. although the rsrank is great and the rsline is
> making new all-time highs, it has definitely been wedging since the
> breakout. Do you consider the rsline action outweighs the wedge or not?
> Please feel free not to answer this question given my vested interest in
> APPX.
>
> Note that, given I am very new at this, I will, much more than likely,
> invoke the take-your-20%-profit-and-run rule with this one.
>
> =================================================
> Roger Tawa
> http://tawacentral.net/
> [One thing about paradigms: shift happens.]
> [When you stop, you're done.]
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]
> Sent: Saturday, May 24, 2003 12:36 PM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] ADVP
>
> Hi Roger,
>
> Contrary to what might seem to be the case, a strong stock
> will most often see the RSLine stay flat or (preferrably) rise even as
> price is falling. That occurs because, despite the pullback, the price
> action *relative to the market as a whole* is still showing superiority.
> For example, if the price of stock A is falling at a *slower rate* than
> the market is falling, the RSLine will rise. That's why you can have a
> stock's RSLine rise even as the price is falling on the left side of the
> cup and why it's possible for the RSLine to make new highs, even as the
> stock's price is drifting down within the handle (which is ideally what
> you would like to see). However, I wouldn't get overly concerned about a
> minor pullback in the RSLine during the handle as long as the overall
> upward trend of the RSLine remains intact. That can happen when the market
> as a whole is very strong.
>
> What you really want to keep your eye on is a very marked
> negative divergence in the direction of the RSLine relative to the price
> action in the stock. This will happen in ill formed bases and in stocks
> that are currently rising after a previous breakout. If the price
> continues to rise while the RSLine heads markedly South, that's a warning
> sign the move is running out of gas. This is the same reasoning you would
> use when looking for the "wedging" action discussed here on the list
> previously. That is, if price is rising on ever decreasing volume, that
> divergence shows a lack of conviction in the move and raises the
> likelihood that the stock will correct. That's why you ideally want to see
> volume *rise* on the right side of the cup.
>
> Katherine
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]
> Sent: Saturday, May 24, 2003 10:13 AM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] ADVP
>
> Thanks Katherine.
>
> As for the down-sloping ud volume in the handle, I
> guess that's to be expected in a proper handle given that the price should
> be falling. would the same be true for the rsline and rsrank? Assuming
> the handle is forming due to a general market downturn, you might expect
> the rsline and rank to (at least) be flat for a true leader. Does that
> make sense?
>
> =================================================
> Roger Tawa
> http://tawacentral.net/
> [One thing about paradigms: shift happens.]
> [When you stop, you're done.]
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]
> Sent: Friday, May 23, 2003 1:56 PM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] ADVP
>
> Hi Roger,
>
> I think with a stock like ADVP, particularly where
> the base is lengthy, it's easiest to put the volume action in perspective
> when looking at the weekly chart. I don't think there's anything worrisome
> about an decreasing ADV line as it's simply summarizing action over the
> last 50 days and so will vary a bit, particularly if there were some very
> high volume days early in the 50 day period that then drop off the
> calculation as time marches on. That would be particularly true when much
> of the base falls outside that 50 day period. In this case, ADVP's base is
> more than a year. If there were high volume on the left side or near the
> bottom of the base as the stock pushed down and then made a high volume
> reversal at the bottom, then eventually, those volume bars fall outside
> the 50 days and action on the right side of the base takes over in the ADV
> calculation.
>
> So, all in all, I'd put ADVP's base into perspective
> by looking at the weekly action:
>
> http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/ADVPWkly052303.JPG
>
> and a close up of the action on the right side of
> the base and handle:
> http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/ADVP052303.JPG
>
> Katherine
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]
> Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2003 8:42 PM
> To: CANSLIM
> Subject: [CANSLIM] ADVP
>
> Hi all,
>
> I am looking at ADVP. I do not own it at this time.
> It seems to have pretty good fundies. As for the chart, the handle looks
> good, going down along the lows and volume drying up. The rsline is
> making new highs at the pp. the rsrank and ud volume are good. Finally,
> the weekly chart also looks good, except it seems to have a downtrend in
> the ud volume.
>
> The one thing I'm not sure about is the lack of
> volume in rhs of the cup. In fact, the 50 day ADV actually goes down
> during the rhs of the cup, except for one spike near the pp. Is this a
> big concern? Thanks.
>
> =================================================
> Roger Tawa
> http://tawacentral.net/
> [One thing about paradigms: shift happens.]
> [When you stop, you're done.]
>
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------------------------------
Date: Sat, 24 May 2003 17:06:41 -0500
From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] usna, stcr
Hi Dave,
On STCR, I wouldn't agree the breakout was on 5/6. It's easier to
demonstrate by looking first at the weekly chart, where you can see the last
bit of action on the right side of the cup and then the 1 week handle.
http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/STCRWkly052303.JPG
Here's a close-up of the daily action in the cup, showing when the pivot
formed to start the handle and the subsequent breakout on 5/15:
http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/STCR052303.JPG
Katherine
- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of david rossing
Sent: Saturday, May 24, 2003 9:25 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] usna, stcr
Tomas,
Thanks for the reply.
I've been holding USNA for a while now. I guess i'll hold a little
longer and see if it goes on again from here.
For STCR, I was actually looking at a pivot on 5/6 of 12.3. Any
thoughts on what is the "right" pivot here? I bought on the breakout
past that before I sent my questions last week.
Dave
- --- Tomas <tomas986@yahoo.com> wrote:
> Dave,
>
> USNA fundies looks good (it's on my watchlist). The
> charts looks good. If you have it already, I don't
> see any reason to sell yet. Looks like it's going
> sideway, swallowing the recent gains.
>
> As for STCR, if you are looking to buy, I think it is
> a little too late. The left side of cup is at 1/30.
> Pivot point is on 4/22(beginning of handle) at $11.95.
> The BO could be 5/6 at $12.37. Volume was up that
> day, but price did not go up that much. Not sure if
> that is a good BO. Maybe a better BO would be 5/14 at
> $12.45. A buy at either BO day would be good since it
> did not go below %8 of the buy point. However,
> currently, it is extended from the base for a buy
> point.
>
> The fundies looks good. Good earnings and RS. The
> only thing I would worry about is the industry
> strength. That industry is definitely not one of the
> better ones.
>
> just my $.02
> tomas
>
>
> 4-4 6.82/7 8.75/11 15.57/18
>
> --- david rossing <pimpdaddycueball@yahoo.com> wrote:
> > I was just wondering about opinions on two stocks.
> >
> > USNA broke out of a base back in October and has
> > been going up for a
> > while. It still looks like good earnings and
> > revenue growth. In the
> > past week or so, the price has been dropping on
> > increasing volume. On
> > Friday, it went up on low volume. Is this price
> > action a good sell
> > signal to get out, or maybe just a yellow flag?
> >
> > The second is STCR. It just broke out of what looks
> > like a CWH to me.
> > It has good earnings and rev growth. The RS line is
> > not quite at new
> > highs in the breakout over the past two days and the
> > industry doesn't
> > look great.
> >
> > Any opinions on fundamentals or charts would be
> > greatly appreciated.
> > Thanks.
> >
> > Dave
> >
> >
> > __________________________________
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------------------------------
Date: Sat, 24 May 2003 16:11:30 -0600
From: "Rolf Hertenstein" <rolfh@mindspring.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Reasonable Goal?
Hi Ian - I like your response better than mine - much more optimistic.
Following up on Gene's question, approximately how much time do you spend
(daily, weekly, ??) to achieve those gains? If this is too personal a
question, please say so.
For me, discipline seems to be a function of time. That is, the more time I
have available, the more disciplined my trading becomes. When other demands
on my time make me less focused, I tend to make stupid mistakes.
Rolf
- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Ian" <ianstm@shaw.ca>
> Hi Tomas:
>
> I'll be the exception here and say that I believe that 40% a year is a
> reasonable goal (particularly up until you have about $600,000 - IMHO,
> outsized returns are a lot easier with smaller amounts of money) if you
are
> extremely disciplined about:
> * cutting losses very early
> * REALLY letting your winners run
> * committed to buying strong breakouts during confirmed rallies (You don't
> have to believe in a 'secular bull' to do this - but you do need to
> understand that most of these rallies are good for about 2 months and 30%
> runs in the indices).
>
> NONE of these 3 things are remotely easy. They all seem to fly in the face
> of basic human nature. But they are all absolutely essential to achieve
> outsized gains.
>
>
> My personal goals are to double every two years (about 42% per year), and
I
> have been achieving it. As an example, my virtual fund was started 2 years
> ago this weekend, and is up about 118% to date:
>
http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/wa/FundPublicPa
> ge?source=DoPiAlBbDlAmIgAmMaKiAbBi (and this was during an ugly market,
and
> with an average of 30% cash, and no shorting allowed, and using strict SEC
> mutual fund asset allocation rules)
>
> As a Canadian, the hardest part about trying to compound the gains is
> taxes - I'm not sure how difficult that is in the US.
>
> Consider all the strong post-March 12 breakouts that are up 80-200%. If
you
> slowly went to fully invested as these breakouts happened, you would
easily
> be up 40% in the last 2 1/2 months.
>
> IMHO, with an unintentional focus on microcaps and nanocaps, I think that
> somewhere in the neighbourhood of $2,000,000 - $4,000,000 is where these
> kind of gains become more difficult. Therefore, for the professional money
> manager, who must look after 10's of millions just to earn a living from
> fees, it really is unreasonable to expect 40%+ annual gains. But for the
> individual investor with a much smaller amount of $$$, I believe their
> 'money making universe' is an order of magnitude larger in terms of
> available equities, so they have a reasonable chance at these kind of
gains.
>
> Consider SSYS and HITK, which have been 2 of the best stocks during the
last
> 2 months. Both of them were trading under 100,000 shares a day when the
> rally started (SSYS had a 13,000 share day in early march, with the
average
> probably under 50,000). As a professional manager with $100,000,000, you
> probably couldn't or wouldn't buy enough of either of these to make a huge
> impact on you fund. But as an individual, if you buy 6-10 positions for
> yourself, these two stocks alone could have netted you 20-30%.
>
>
> Cheers,
>
> Ian
>
>
> Marketocracy has 100+ funds that were up 30% in the last 30 days alone:
>
http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/wa/RankingViewP
> age?date=20030516&subject=30Days%20Rankings%2081%20%2D%20100
> IMHO, that is only possible because of the small position sizes.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Tomas <tomas986@yahoo.com>
> To: canslim canslim <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Friday, May 23, 2003 12:57 PM
> Subject: [CANSLIM] Reasonable Goal?
>
>
> > This question is for the senior CS'ers. If an
> > investor is 29 years old right now, and his goal is to
> > make $2M by 40 to retire, is this a reasonable goal?
> > The assumption is that he will start with $10K and add
> > between $5-$10K capital every year.
> >
> > I understand that there are many factors like
> > - how discipline you are
> > - how diligence you are
> > - how persistent you are
> > - how you learn from your mistake and
> > do post analysis of your trades
> > - and even how lucky you are.
> >
> > But assumption that the investor is decently good on
> > those factors. What is your opinion?
> >
> > Thanks,
> > tomas
> >
> >
> > __________________________________
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