home
***
CD-ROM
|
disk
|
FTP
|
other
***
search
/
ftp.sec.noaa.gov
/
2014.05.ftp.sec.noaa.gov.tar
/
ftp.sec.noaa.gov
/
pub
/
warehouse
/
2014
/
RSGA
/
20140303RSGA.txt
< prev
next >
Wrap
Text File
|
2014-03-03
|
2KB
|
55 lines
:Product: 0303RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Mar 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 62 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
03/1558Z from Region 1989 (N08W42). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(04 Mar, 05 Mar, 06 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
377 km/s at 03/0029Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/0245Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/0114Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12 pfu at
02/2105Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar, 06
Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar, 06 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Mar 161
Predicted 04 Mar-06 Mar 160/160/155
90 Day Mean 03 Mar 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05