:Product: 0303RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Mar 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 62 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
03/1558Z from Region 1989 (N08W42). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(04 Mar, 05 Mar, 06 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
377 km/s at 03/0029Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/0245Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/0114Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12 pfu at
02/2105Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar, 06
Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar, 06 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Mar 161
Predicted   04 Mar-06 Mar 160/160/155
90 Day Mean        03 Mar 160

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05