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20140211RSGA.txt
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:Product: 0211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Feb 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
11/1651Z from Region 1974 (S13E04). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
617 km/s at 10/2205Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/1133Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 11/0354Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 906 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (12 Feb, 13 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on day three (14 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 172
Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 170/165/160
90 Day Mean 11 Feb 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 006/005-005/005-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/35
Minor Storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 05/05/50