:Product: 0211RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Feb 11 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 11/1651Z from Region 1974 (S13E04). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 617 km/s at 10/2205Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/1133Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 11/0354Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 906 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (12 Feb, 13 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (14 Feb). III. Event probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb Class M 45/45/45 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Feb 172 Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 170/165/160 90 Day Mean 11 Feb 155 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 006/005-005/005-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/35 Minor Storm 01/01/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 15/15/25 Major-severe storm 05/05/50