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20140125RSGA.txt
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:Product: 0125RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 26 0625 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (26 Jan, 27
Jan) increasing to a chance for M-class flares on day three (28 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
409 km/s at 24/2350Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/2128Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/0106Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (27 Jan), and quiet to active levels on day three (28 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Class M 20/20/35
Class X 01/01/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jan 133
Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 130/135/140
90 Day Mean 24 Jan 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 006/005-007/008-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/25
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 05/25/35