:Product: 0125RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 26 0625 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (26 Jan, 27
Jan) increasing to a chance for M-class flares on day three (28 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
409 km/s at 24/2350Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/2128Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/0106Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (27 Jan), and quiet to active levels on day three (28 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Class M    20/20/35
Class X    01/01/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jan 133
Predicted   26 Jan-28 Jan 130/135/140
90 Day Mean        24 Jan 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan  006/005-007/008-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/25
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/25/35