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20140121RSGA.txt
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:Product: 0121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
20/2249Z from Region 1963 (S06E71). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan,
24 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
488 km/s at 21/2051Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 21/2009Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 21/1708Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 111 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (22 Jan, 24 Jan) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (23 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jan 146
Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 21 Jan 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 006/005-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/05
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/25/15
Major-severe storm 05/25/05