:Product: 0121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
20/2249Z from Region 1963 (S06E71). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan,
24 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
488 km/s at 21/2051Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 21/2009Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 21/1708Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 111 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (22 Jan, 24 Jan) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (23 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jan 146
Predicted   22 Jan-24 Jan 140/140/140
90 Day Mean        21 Jan 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  006/005-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/05
Minor Storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/25/15
Major-severe storm    05/25/05