home
***
CD-ROM
|
disk
|
FTP
|
other
***
search
/
ftp.sec.noaa.gov
/
2014.05.ftp.sec.noaa.gov.tar
/
ftp.sec.noaa.gov
/
pub
/
warehouse
/
1988_RSGA.tar.gz
/
1988_RSGA.tar
/
1988_RSGA
/
19881228RSGA.txt
< prev
next >
Wrap
Text File
|
2009-06-10
|
2KB
|
41 lines
FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 363
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 28 DEC 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 5297 (S15E22) HAD
THREE SMALL M-CLASS FLARES. REGION 5285 (N21W52) PRODUCED ONE.
BOTH RETAINED THEIR SLIGHTLY COMPLICATED MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION.
REGION 5292 (S18W09) ALSO HAD ONE SMALL M-CLASS BUT IT WAS OF
LONG DURATION WITH ASSOCIATED TYPES II AND IV RADIO SWEEPS AS
WELL AS MODEST BURSTS. ITS LOCATION WAS S18E08 AND THE MAXIMUM
X-RAY FLUX OCCURRED AT 28/0054Z.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGIONS 5297, 5285, AND 5292 ALL PROVIDE A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF HIGH ACTIVITY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST DAY. THE LONG
DURATION X-RAY EVENT (LDXE) VERY EARLY ON 28 DEC IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A DISTURBANCE STARTING ON THE SECOND DAY. IT SHOULD
THEN BE AT ACTIVE TO INTERMITTENT STORM LEVELS THROUGH THE LAST
DAY.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 DEC-31 DEC
CLASS M 60/60/60
CLASS X 10/10/10
PROTON 10/10/10
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 28 DEC 209
PREDICTED 29 DEC-31 DEC 195/180/172
90 DAY MEAN 28 DEC 176
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 DEC 016/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 DEC 015/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 DEC-31 DEC 012/018-025/020-020/018