FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 363
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 28 DEC 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 5297 (S15E22) HAD
THREE SMALL M-CLASS FLARES. REGION 5285 (N21W52) PRODUCED ONE.
BOTH RETAINED THEIR SLIGHTLY COMPLICATED MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION.
REGION 5292 (S18W09) ALSO HAD ONE SMALL M-CLASS BUT IT WAS OF
LONG DURATION WITH ASSOCIATED TYPES II AND IV RADIO SWEEPS AS
WELL AS MODEST BURSTS. ITS LOCATION WAS S18E08 AND THE MAXIMUM
X-RAY FLUX OCCURRED AT 28/0054Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGIONS 5297, 5285, AND 5292 ALL PROVIDE A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF HIGH ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST DAY. THE LONG
DURATION X-RAY EVENT (LDXE) VERY EARLY ON 28 DEC IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A DISTURBANCE STARTING ON THE SECOND DAY. IT SHOULD
THEN BE AT ACTIVE TO INTERMITTENT STORM LEVELS THROUGH THE LAST
DAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 DEC-31 DEC
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 DEC  209
PREDICTED   29 DEC-31 DEC  195/180/172
90 DAY MEAN        28 DEC  176
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 27 DEC  016/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 DEC  015/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 DEC-31 DEC  012/018-025/020-020/018