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19881122RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 327
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 22 NOV 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 5235 (N16W70)
PRODUCED AN M1/1B FLARE AT 21/2302Z. THIS FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH MINOR RADIO BURSTS ACROSS THE SPECTRUM AND A TYPE II/IV
RADIO SWEEP. REGION 5240 (N21W46) IS THE LARGEST AND MOST
COMPLEX REGION ON THE DISK BUT HAS ONLY PRODUCED SMALL FLARES
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. ISOLATED M-FLARE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
FROM THE AREA NEAR REGION 5240, WHICH ALSO INCLUDES REGIONS
5235 AND 5241 (N25W28).
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 NOV-25 NOV
CLASS M 50/50/50
CLASS X 05/05/05
PROTON 05/05/05
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 22 NOV 150
PREDICTED 23 NOV-25 NOV 152/154/156
90 DAY MEAN 22 NOV 162
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 NOV 005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 NOV 005/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 NOV-25 NOV 005/006-005/006-005/015