FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 327
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 22 NOV 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE.  REGION 5235 (N16W70)
PRODUCED AN M1/1B FLARE AT 21/2302Z.  THIS FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH MINOR RADIO BURSTS ACROSS THE SPECTRUM AND A TYPE II/IV
RADIO SWEEP.  REGION 5240 (N21W46) IS THE LARGEST AND MOST
COMPLEX REGION ON THE DISK BUT HAS ONLY PRODUCED SMALL FLARES
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE.  ISOLATED M-FLARE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
FROM THE AREA NEAR REGION 5240, WHICH ALSO INCLUDES REGIONS
5235 AND 5241 (N25W28).
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 NOV-25 NOV
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 NOV  150
PREDICTED   23 NOV-25 NOV  152/154/156
90 DAY MEAN        22 NOV  162
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 21 NOV  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 NOV  005/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 NOV-25 NOV  005/006-005/006-005/015