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19881104RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 309
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 04 NOV 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF
THE PERIOD WAS A C4/SN FLARE FROM REGION 5218 (N10E29) AT
03/2125Z. THE EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE II RADIO SWEEP
BURST. REGION 5212 (S17W19) CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP, BUT HAS
REMAINED RELATIVELY QUIET DESPITE ITS HIGH DEGREE OF MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED TODAY.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF REGION 5212. ISOLATED X-CLASS
ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THIS REGION.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TOMORROW DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.
THE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 NOV-07 NOV
CLASS M 60/60/60
CLASS X 20/20/20
PROTON 20/20/20
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 04 NOV 162
PREDICTED 05 NOV-07 NOV 162/162/162
90 DAY MEAN 04 NOV 159
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 NOV 020/025
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 NOV 007/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 NOV-07 NOV 018/020-012/015-012/015