FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 309
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 04 NOV 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF
THE PERIOD WAS A C4/SN FLARE FROM REGION 5218 (N10E29) AT
03/2125Z. THE EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE II RADIO SWEEP
BURST. REGION 5212 (S17W19) CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP, BUT HAS
REMAINED RELATIVELY QUIET DESPITE ITS HIGH DEGREE OF MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF REGION 5212. ISOLATED X-CLASS
ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THIS REGION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TOMORROW DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.
THE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 NOV-07 NOV
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    20/20/20
PROTON     20/20/20
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 NOV  162
PREDICTED   05 NOV-07 NOV  162/162/162
90 DAY MEAN        04 NOV  159
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 03 NOV  020/025
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 NOV  007/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 NOV-07 NOV  018/020-012/015-012/015