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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 298
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 24 OCT 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 5200 (N21W11)
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SOLAR DISK, PRODUCING NEARLY ALL OF
TODAY'S FLARE ACTIVITY. THE LARGEST WERE A C6/SN AT 23/2200Z AND
A C6/SN AT 24/2005Z. THE REGION APPEARS TO BE DECAYING SLOWLY
WITH PENUMBRAL FRAGMENTATION PRIMARILY IN THE LEADER SPOTS.
THE MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION IS ALSO SIMPLIFYING: THE CURRENT
CONFIGURATION IS BASICALLY A BETA TYPE, ALTHOUGH SOME MIXED
POLARITIES ARE VISIBLE IN FRONT OF THE LEADER SPOTS. A NEW
REGION 5207 (S26E71) ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY AS A SMALL,
BIPOLAR, D-TYPE GROUP. NOTABLE SURGE ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED
ON THE WEST LIMB AT ABOUT N30 DURING THE PERIOD. THE REMAINDER
OF THE SOLAR DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY LOW WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS
FLARES FROM REGION 5200.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY QUIET WITH SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF TOMORROW, BUT
SHOULD BECOME UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY
ON THE SECOND DAY AS AN EXTENSION OF THE NORTHERN POLAR CORONAL
HOLE (TO N20) WILL MOVE INTO A FAVORABLE LONGITUDE AT THAT TIME.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS
ON THE THIRD DAY AS THE DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 OCT-27 OCT
CLASS M 40/40/40
CLASS X 05/05/05
PROTON 05/10/10
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 24 OCT 170
PREDICTED 25 OCT-27 OCT 171/172/175
90 DAY MEAN 24 OCT 160
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 OCT 006/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 OCT 007/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 OCT-27 OCT 007/018-016/025-010/018