FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO SDF NUMBER 298 JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY. ISSUED 2200Z 24 OCT 1988 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 5200 (N21W11) CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SOLAR DISK, PRODUCING NEARLY ALL OF TODAY'S FLARE ACTIVITY. THE LARGEST WERE A C6/SN AT 23/2200Z AND A C6/SN AT 24/2005Z. THE REGION APPEARS TO BE DECAYING SLOWLY WITH PENUMBRAL FRAGMENTATION PRIMARILY IN THE LEADER SPOTS. THE MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION IS ALSO SIMPLIFYING: THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION IS BASICALLY A BETA TYPE, ALTHOUGH SOME MIXED POLARITIES ARE VISIBLE IN FRONT OF THE LEADER SPOTS. A NEW REGION 5207 (S26E71) ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY AS A SMALL, BIPOLAR, D-TYPE GROUP. NOTABLE SURGE ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED ON THE WEST LIMB AT ABOUT N30 DURING THE PERIOD. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOLAR DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET AND STABLE. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LOW WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES FROM REGION 5200. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY QUIET WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF TOMORROW, BUT SHOULD BECOME UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY ON THE SECOND DAY AS AN EXTENSION OF THE NORTHERN POLAR CORONAL HOLE (TO N20) WILL MOVE INTO A FAVORABLE LONGITUDE AT THAT TIME. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS ON THE THIRD DAY AS THE DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 OCT-27 OCT CLASS M 40/40/40 CLASS X 05/05/05 PROTON 05/10/10 PCAF GREEN IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 24 OCT 170 PREDICTED 25 OCT-27 OCT 171/172/175 90 DAY MEAN 24 OCT 160 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 OCT 006/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 OCT 007/013 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 OCT-27 OCT 007/018-016/025-010/018