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19881013RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 287
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 13 OCT 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 5175 (S16W85)
PRODUCED AN M6/0N FLARE WITH A SIGNIFICANT TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP
AND ALSO BOTH 245MHZ AND 2695MHZ BURSTS. IT WAS LAST OBSERVED
AS A BETA-GAMMA TYPE. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 5193 (N25E30) WAS
IN THE CROWDED EASTNORTHEAST SECTOR. A MODERATE CME WAS SEEN
AT 12/2224Z FROM THE SOUTHEAST LIMB.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. REGION 5175 SHOULD BE TOO FAR AROUND TO AGAIN PROVIDE MORE
THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MODERATE ACTIVITY, OR MORE THAN A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A PROTON PRODUCING FLARE. THE EASTNORTHEAST
GROUP OF REGIONS PROVIDE A FAIR CHANCE OF MODERATE ACTIVITY,
AND A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A PROTON PRODUCING FLARE.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO QUIET.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MINOR STORM LEVELS. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED
IN RESPONSE TO THE X2/2N FLARE OF 12/0511Z. MAJOR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO RECURRENT
ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
A 10 MEV PROTON ENHANCEMENT TO JUST AT AND ABOVE EVENT LEVEL
VALUES IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 OCT-16 OCT
CLASS M 35/35/35
CLASS X 05/05/05
PROTON 05/05/05
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 13 OCT 159
PREDICTED 14 OCT-16 OCT 145/140/135
90 DAY MEAN 13 OCT 157
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 OCT 006/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 OCT 007/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 OCT-16 OCT 030/030-025/040-020/028