FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 287
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 13 OCT 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 5175 (S16W85)
PRODUCED AN M6/0N FLARE WITH A SIGNIFICANT TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP
AND ALSO BOTH 245MHZ AND 2695MHZ BURSTS. IT WAS LAST OBSERVED
AS A BETA-GAMMA TYPE. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 5193 (N25E30) WAS
IN THE CROWDED EASTNORTHEAST SECTOR. A MODERATE CME WAS SEEN
AT 12/2224Z FROM THE SOUTHEAST LIMB.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. REGION 5175 SHOULD BE TOO FAR AROUND TO AGAIN PROVIDE MORE
THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MODERATE ACTIVITY, OR MORE THAN A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A PROTON PRODUCING FLARE. THE EASTNORTHEAST
GROUP OF REGIONS PROVIDE A FAIR CHANCE OF MODERATE ACTIVITY,
AND A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A PROTON PRODUCING FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MINOR STORM LEVELS. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED
IN RESPONSE TO THE X2/2N FLARE OF 12/0511Z. MAJOR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO RECURRENT
ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
A 10 MEV PROTON ENHANCEMENT TO JUST AT AND ABOVE EVENT LEVEL
VALUES IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 OCT-16 OCT
CLASS M    35/35/35
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 OCT  159
PREDICTED   14 OCT-16 OCT  145/140/135
90 DAY MEAN        13 OCT  157
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 12 OCT  006/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 OCT  007/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 OCT-16 OCT  030/030-025/040-020/028