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19880903RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 247
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 03 SEP 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 5131 (S21W18)
CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SMALL C-CLASS SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD
AND CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST, MOST IMPRESSIVE GROUP ON THE
DISK AT THIS TIME. REGION 5126 (S22W51) ALSO PRODUCED A FEW
SMALL C-CLASS SUBFLARES INCLUDING TODAY'S LARGEST EVENT, A
C5.8/1N AT 0719Z. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED: REGION 5134
(N33E75), A SIMPLE H-TYPE SPOT THAT ROTATED INTO VIEW, AND
REGION 5135 (N19E07) A SIMPLE B-TYPE GROUP THAT EMERGED ON THE
DISK. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET AND
STABLE.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MODERATE LEVELS OF ACTIVITY
FROM REGION 5131.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED AT MID-LATITUDES AND
WAS GENERALLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MINOR STORM LEVELS WAS REPORTED BY SOME HIGH LATITUDE
SITES EARLY IN THE DAY.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND MOSTLY
ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 SEP-06 SEP
CLASS M 15/15/15
CLASS X 01/01/01
PROTON 01/01/01
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 03 SEP 174
PREDICTED 04 SEP-06 SEP 174/174/174
90 DAY MEAN 03 SEP 151
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 SEP 011/026
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 SEP 012/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 SEP-06 SEP 010/025-010/025-010/020